Friday, May 16, 2008

Gallagher’s velocity

The day after Gallagher’s first start I took a look at his average fastball velocity each inning.  In that start, Gallagher threw slower each successive inning leading you to believe he was just giving it his all from the first pitch onward and he tired around the 5th inning, which was the inning he gave up 3 runs.  Here’s the average FB velocity each inning:

1st:  93.5
2nd:  92.63
3rd:  92.60
4th:  92.1
5th:  91.7

Overall he averaged 92.5 mph.

Today’s start is a little different.  The nerves of making the first major league start are out of the way and he can settle down and pitch. 

He threw 54 fastballs (91 total pitches) today according to the Gameday XML file.  The average velocity was 92.8 mph.  Here’s how it broken down by inning:

1st:  93.2
2nd:  92.8
3rd:  93.2
4th:  93.0
5th:  92.1
6th:  92.3

As you can see, the greatest velocity was 93.2 mph (1st and 3rd innings) and the lowest was only 92.1 mph.  There may have been a little bit of tiring, but not a significant amount and if it is there, it will take care of itself with more starts. 

I’ll keep an eye on this to see if/when his velocity becomes even more consistent though I really doubt it’s anything other than nerves at this point.  And I don’t know how this compares to other pitchers so it’s relatively useless in terms of reaching any conclusions. 

Through 42 games

DJ asked in the comments of the previous thread when the last time the Cubs got off to a start as good this season (26-16).  I had actually already done the research (what little there was) this morning in case they did win today. 

The last time the Cubs got off to a 26-16 start or better was 1987.  They were the exact same through 42 games as the 2008 Cubs.  The 1985 and 1984 Cubs also got off to 26-16 starts. 

The last time a Cubs team got off to a better start was in 1977 when the club opened 28-14.  The 1969 Cubs also began the season 28-14.

Those are the only 5 Cubs teams who have gotten off to as good a start as the 2008 Cubs since 1945.  Prior to 1945, the Cubs were much better at baseball, so there are quite a few years.  11 times the Cubs got off to at least a 26-16 start between 1900 and 1945. 

The best start the Cubs have ever gotten off to through 42 games was the 1907 Cubs who began the season 33-9 on way to a 107-45 season.  Interestingly, the 1906 Cubs still hold the mark for the best winning percentage in history as they won 116-36 (80 freaking games over .500!), but “only” got off to a 28-14 start.  For 6 consecutive years between 1906 and 1911 the Cubs got off to at least 26-16 starts.  Here’s one for you:  from the start of the 1906 season up through the first 44 games of the 1907 season, the Cubs went a ridiculous 150-45.  Now that’s domination! 

All combined, 16 Cubs teams have gotten off to 26-16 starts or better.  8 of them have been exactly 26-16 so only 8 times have the Cubs had a better 42-game start to the season than they have done in 2008.  The list of all Cubs teams who started 26-16 or better are listed below with their final record as well.

1903:  30-12, 82-56
1906:  28-14, 116-36
1907:  33-9, 107-45
1908:  27-15, 99-55
1909:  26-16, 104-49
1910:  27-15, 104-50
1911:  26-16, 92-62
1918:  30-12, 84-45
1932:  26-16, 90-64
1934:  26-16, 86-65
1938:  26-16, 89-63
--------------------------------
1969:  28-14, 92-70
1977:  28-14, 81-81
1984:  26-16, 96-65
1985:  26-16, 77-84
1987:  26-16, 76-85

*If there’s a typo in there, I apologize.  I’m posting this in a hurry.

Gallagher picks up first career win

Sean Gallagher has earned himself at least another start, and probably a couple more.  He threw the ball really well and he threw it over the plate (60 of 91 pitches were strikes).  The Pirates have a good offense and held them down to just 1 run in 6 innings of work.  It is the 22-year old’s first career win.  He’s had 2 starts and with the exception of the 5th inning in his first start, he’s thrown the ball exceptionally well.  If Rich Hill can get straightened out, this rotation may not need fixing after all.  Bob Howry pitched the 7th and 8th (allowed 3 in the 8th) and Woody got the save.  The Cubs won 7-4.

Soriano, for the 3rd time in 4 games, hit a leadoff home run on the first pitch from Gorzellany.  Soriano added a 3-run home run to put the Cubs up 4-0 6-0 in the 2nd inning.  Geovany Soto added a solo home run and so did Mark DeRosa. 

The Cubs improve to 26-16 and continue to score loads of runs.  They put this game away early (6-0 after 2 innings) and have the capability of adding runs in large bunches. 

Carlos Zambrano gets the start tomorrow against the Pirates, Zach Duke. 

Today’s WPA Graph…

Pirates at Cubs open game thread

B-REF PREVIEW | GAMEDAY | WEATHER | ACB CHAT ROOM

Tom Gorzellany vs. Cubs hitters:  .326/.404/.516 in 95 at-bats
Sean Gallagher vs. Pirates hitters:  1-6, 2B, 2 BB, K

1:20 pm on WGN.  Low to mid 60s, sunny, wind blowing out towards right field corner at 10 mph. 

While the Cubs have have managed a .920 OPS against Gorzellany, a few of the Cubs really struggle against him.  Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Theriot are a combined 6-38 with 1 home run (Soriano).  Cedeno is 4-9 against Gorzellany so hopefully Theriot will get a day off today.  On the other side of things, Derosa, Soto, Lee, and Cedeno have combined to go 21-39 with 7 doubles and 2 home runs against Gorzellany. 

Sean Gallagher has faced only 8 Pirates hitters (one of them a pitcher, Maholm), one time each.  Only Xavier Nady has a hit, a double.  Sanchez and Doumit walked in their plate appearances against Gallagher. 

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Cubs take 3 of 4 from Padres

Greg Maddux may have pitched for the last time in Wrigley Field and it started out like you’d expect--4 pitches in the 1st inning.  It got tougher after that, but he managed to keep the Cubs scoreless through 4 inning and then the Cubs put 4 on the board before Maddux departed to a standing ovation. 

Ryan Dempster was outstanding.  Lou gave him a chance for the complete game shutout, but a couple of hits and only one later, Lou went to Woody for the save and the Cubs won 4-0.  The Cardinals lost as the Pirates scored 7 runs in the 8th and 9th innings and the Brewers got beat 7-2 by the Dodgers.  The Giants are currently beating the Astros 7-3.  No reason to scoreboard watch at this point.  No reason to really pay attention when your team is in first place either, but I happened to look. 

The Cubs have won 6 of their first 7 on this 10-game homestand.  The Pirates come in for 3 this weekend beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Sean Gallagher will get his 2nd major league start and Zach Duke Tom Gorzellany starts for the Pirates.  The Cubs roughed Duke up pretty bad earlier this season. 

I’m going to start posting the WPA Graph for each game. 

Padres at Cubs open game thread

B-REF PREVIEW | GAMEDAY | WEATHER | ACB CHAT ROOM

Greg Maddux vs. Cubs hitters:  .212/.244/.326 in 184 at-bats
Ryan Dempster vs. Padres hitters:  .280/.341/.476 in 82 at-bats

60s, wind blowing in at 11 mph towards the Cubs dugout.  1:20 on WGN CSN Chicago.

Blanco will probably get the start today with the day game after the night game and that’s not a bad thing.  He’s about the only Cubs who has had much of any success against Maddux.  Dempster needs to stay away from Brian Giles. 

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Cubs beat Peavy, sign Edmonds

The Cubs have fared unusually well this season against the ace of team’s staffs and tonight was no different.  Alfonso Soriano led off the game with a home run, his second consecutive leadoff homer.  Soriano then drove in 2 with a single to LF in the 2nd and the Cubs had an early 3-0 lead.  They added another run in the 4th and are now 20-1 when scoring 4 runs or more.

Lilly was really good for 4 innings and then ran into trouble in the 5th as he allowed 3 runs to score, but Geovany Soto hit a 2-run home run in the bottom half of the inning to make it 6-3.  Each team added a couple more and the final was 8-5.

The Cubs signed Jim Edmonds prior to the game and he was to take a physical this evening.  If he passes it (he did pass it according to Jim Hendry), he’ll probably be in the lineup tomorrow as Greg Maddux tries to win his 351st game. 

We’ve talked quite a bit around here about this and most of us agree that this doesn’t improve the Cubs and the numbers available to us also support that, but there’s not much point in continuing to discuss whether or not it’s a good move.  It isn’t, but it’s done and that’s all that matters.  Felix Pie will be optioned to AAA tomorrow.

What can we expect from Edmonds?  Hard to know to be honest.  He’s been in decline since 2005 and it’s been a rather sharp decline too. 

• 2004:  .301/.418/.643, 12.2 WARP3
• 2005:  .263/.385/.533, 10.4 WARP3
• 2006:  .257/.350/.471, 4.6 WARP3
• 2007:  .252/.325/.403, 3.8 WARP3
• 2008:  .178/.265/.233, 0.0 WARP3

A simple back of the napkin projection for Edmonds using 2005, 2006, and 2007 (2008 added to 2007) gets you this:  .249/.341/.431 with 18 home runs in 422 at-bats.  That doesn’t include any kind of aging curve, which would reduce those numbers even further.  What do the projections say?

• CHONE:  .248/.347/.444, .348 wOBA
• Marcel:  .253/.344/.438, .338 wOBA
• PECOTA:  .240/.327/.415, 9.8 VORP, 2.0 WARP
• ZIPS:  .247/.344/.440
• Bill James:  .268/.372/.496
• The Hardball Times:  .253/.348/.439

The back of the napkin projection is pretty similar to most of these, which isn’t surprising, and none of them are any good except for Bill James and I’m not sure his are actually projections in the sense that the others are.  But, let’s hope Bill James knows something these others aren’t aware of.  Let’s hope Jim Edmonds defies the odds because it might not be pretty if he doesn’t. 

Be The First…

...to get yours:

Meet our new CF: A great big, fat person.

Game thread below

Padres at Cubs open game thread

B-REF PREVIEW | GAMEDAY | WEATHER | ACB CHAT ROOM

Jake PV vs. Cubs hitters:  .241/.279/.431 in 58 at-bats
Teddy Roosevelt vs. Padres hitters:  .265/.315/.529 in 68 at-bats

Ronny Cedeno is 2-3 against Peavy, but probably won’t start.  Wind blowing in at 10 mph so Lilly should be able to keep these guys in the park.  I hope.  7:05 start, game is on WCIU and mlb.tv. 

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

4-game winning streak snapped

The Cubs jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, but Jason Marquis allowed 4 runs in the 4th inning and the Padres won 4-3.  Shawn Estes got his first win since 2005.

Reed Johnson went 1-4 with a couple RBI and his OPS remains at around .660.  Jim Edmonds is likely to be signed sometime tomorrow before the game and will probably be in the lineup against Peavy (Edmonds has slugged .500 against Peavy in 16 at-bats).  Felix Pie will probably be optioned, but don’t rule out a trade either.  Here’s something you probably didn’t know.  Or need to know.  Or even want to know.  Jim Edmonds struck out against Zambrano 19 times in 40 at-bats.  He also struck out 19 times against Roy Oswalt, 18 times against Sheets and the pitcher who struck him out the most was Roger Clemens (20, 53 at-bats). 

Marquis’ ERA is now a robust 5.26.  How much longer until Sean Marshall takes his spot in the rotation or how much longer are they going to leave Hill in Iowa (he had poor command in his most recent start for Iowa)?  It’s almost a guaranteed loss at this point when Marquis takes the mound. 

Ted Lilly takes the mound tomorrow night for the Cubs while Peavy goes for the Padres.  The Cubs have fared well this season against some of the better pitchers in the league so let’s hope that continues because the Padres have hit Dempster well (Thursday’s starter) while the Cubs have managed to hit for a .527 OPS against Maddux (Hank White has been the team’s best hitter against Maddux). 

Padres at Cubs open game thread

B-REF PREVIEW | GAMEDAY | WEATHER | ACB CHAT ROOM

Shawn Estes vs. Cubs hitters:  .271/.357/.475 in 59 at-bats
Jason Marquis vs. Padres hitters:  .325/.436/.500 in 43 at-bats

Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are the only Cubs with more than 7 at-bats against Estes.  Lee is 4-18 with 3 doubles, 3 walks and 3 strikeouts.  Ramirez is 8-13 wit 2 home runs, a walk and a strikeout.  Henry Blanco has 12 plate appearances against Estes and is 0-7, but has taken 5 walks.  Reed Johnson is 1-1 with a home run.

Michael Barrett has crushed Marquis (9-23, 5 XBH, 4 walks).  The only other Padre with more than 8 at-bats is Greg Maddux.  Brian Giles is 2-8 with 5 walks.  Tadahito Iguchi is 5-7 with a couple of doubles and 3 walks. 

Game begins at 7:05 pm and is on CSN Chicago.  High 60s at game time with a wind blowing out to left center at a ridiculous 22 mph. 

Monday, May 12, 2008

Cubs interested in Edmonds

First of all, be sure to read Harry’s piece on the pitchf/x summit below this one.  Good stuff.

It appears inevitable that the Cubs will sign Jim Edmonds on Wednesday (Edmonds reportedly told his agent to talk to no other team).  Sullivan and Whittenmeyer have written pretty much the same thing this evening.  Look, there’s not much to say about this.  I think it was to be expected the moment Edmonds was released.  Pie will be sent down to AAA and eventually traded away.  Edmonds isn’t any good and certainly not as good as Felix Pie, even if Pie continues to hit as poorly as he has so far.  It’s not worth any time looking into whether or not this is a good idea.  It isn’t.  It will cost the Cubs a win, maybe more depending on how long they actually keep him around.

There have been on and off again rumors for about a year about Felix Pie and Kahlil Greene so keep an eye out on a potential deal getting done quickly after the Cubs sign Edmonds.  Hendry has asked the Padres about Greene before, but they demanded Pie and Hendry wasn’t willing to do that.  Things have changed now.  The Padres are even more desperate for a centerfielder and the Cubs are probably anxious to get him off the roster because Lou obviously doesn’t like the guy.

Kahlil Greene would be a nice acquisition for the team, but what will frustrate all of us is that Ryan Theriot won’t become the bench player he should be.  He’ll become the everyday 2nd baseman with DeRosa on the bench. 

The Cubs won their 4th straight game tonight in convincing fashion, 12-3.  The Padres are a good team to beat up on so the Cubs need to take advantage in 2 of the next 3 games (Peavy pitches once).  Zambrano was really good again.  He went 7 innings, allowed 6 hits and 3 earned runs while walking 2 and striking out 5.  He’s now 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA.  The Cubs offense took 9 walks in the game and sent 10 men to the plate in the 5th and 6th innings. 

State of F/X

The work many folks have been doing with PITCHf/x has been great.  It’s getting better.

This weekend was the 1st Annual PITCHf/x Summit.  We all hope we’ll have a 2nd one, too.  So many topics were discussed, it will be difficult to put it all together, but I’m going to try.

The event kicked-off Saturday May 11 at the Westin on Market in San Francisco, just a half mile from AT&T Park.  I arrived Friday and had the pleasure of attending the game with Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker.  While folks like me analyze, Greg innovates.  We were both bemused by the amount of drunk late-teen/early-twenties in the left-field bleachers.  No, we’re not grumpy old men, this was like nothing I’ve quite seen before, in terms of early drunkenness and fighting.  I’ve been to the bleachers in Wrigley, the Blue Seats in Madison Square Garden, and many points between.  Friday night was certainly new for me.  As a matter of fact, the night ended tragically, when a teenager was killed after striking his head on the concrete, following an alleged punch from behind.  The deadly blow was allegedly dealt by another teenager.  Both had graduated from local high schools in the past couple of years.  This is the only black mark on what otherwise was a great weekend, which I enjoyed beyond my own expectations.  Well, it pales in comparison, but at least one airline has mastered the art of making the passenger feel like an inconvenience at all points of contact.

Blissfully ignorant of Friday’s tragedy (Greg left a comment on Cubs f/x, telling me what happened, Sunday night), we had a great time at the conference, and all overcame our guilt of being at a baseball conference on Mother’s Day.  Mothers with broadband connections could tune-in online, however.

Much of the discussion, as you can imagine, was highly technical.  Math, aerodynamics, high energy physics software applications, databases, scripting languages, user interface, human factors, neural networks, data correction algorithms, lens distortion, camera characteristics, and my talk on creative uses of the data.  Decidedly non-technical, I hope I provided an informative and entertaining look at the world of PFX.  But, probably not.  You can see for yourself, as the presentations are available online, and, eventually, a downloadable DVD might be available, too.

Matt Lentzner had a baseball handy throughout, and some thought provoking innovations on arm slot and pitch identification.  This is a topic of significant interest to me.  At the ballgame Saturday, I got nicely sunburned while Matt, Alan Nathan and I discussed the matter, and Matt and Alan both used the baseball to explain and explore ideas.  Wisely, I stayed on the bench, hand on beverage.  When Matt presented, at the last minute, his related ideas on pitch distribution (in terms of PFX movement) as a tool to find arm slots, and, in a few quick slides, showed his suggestions on how to show pitch movement in Gameday to make it more intuitive to the casual fan.  The MLBAM guys were very interested, and a very good discussion followed.  I hope to work on that topic more very soon, hopefully with Matt (hint hint).

MLB Advanced Media provides us with the great stuff in Gameday, with the new 3D version coming very soon.  We did get to see it in action on Sunday, and they’ve done very nice work.  I think you’ll all be pretty happy with it, too.  MLBAM was represented by Ross Paul, who provides us with those real time pitch ID’s, and Justin Schafer.  Justin and Ross shared a lot of information, context and perspective on the whole endeavor.  And they listened.  They asked questions, answered questions, and were fully engaged in the conference.  Along with a gaggle of great people from Sportvision, a few spare physicists, and a bunch of bloggers, were representatives from nine major league teams.  Including the creator of favorite baseball simulator, so I got to have my geeky fan moment.

Going back to Greg and his outstanding site Hit Tracker, I want to talk about future possibilities for the system. In particular, Hit f/x.  With the existing cameras, you can pick-up batted balls - from high-launch homers to Baltimore chops - and Peter Jensen as the pictures to prove it.  Peter got a collection of video files from Marv White (CTO, Sportvision) and, along with Rand Pendleton from Sportvision, was able to put together a variety of launch metrics from the existing tools.  Alan Nathan, of the University of Illinois, had already done a study combining “hit f/x” data with Greg’s data, and it seems they’re on to something. 

Besides having good company, a benefit of attending Friday’s game with Greg was learning more about his work.  I also was able to witness his process of photo-documenting nooks, crannies and landmarks.  Greg’s model of AT&T park is about to be improved, just in time for some Barry Bonds analysis that Greg may be about to embark on.  Greg’s talk on Saturday integrated fielding data via examples taken from a webcam in Nationals’ Park.  No, the cam is no longer operating, but he was able to find at least four shots that captured a ball in flight (one appears to be catcher’s toss back to the pitcher) and lots of information on fielder positions.  The work on home runs that we’re all so familiar with is going to expand to more and more batted balls. Greg sees no technical reasons to not do this, only practical limitations and considerations raise doubt about the feasibility of the “Ultimate Gamecast”. Greg not only gets this stuff technically, but he fully grasps the “immersion” factor that is so crucial to all fans, casual, technical, and, I’ll throw in newbies, too.  Be sure to visit the Summit web page and get Greg’s slides.  Like I said, innovations.

Now, time for the foam board.  Sportvision’s high tech lab (parking lot) and several baseball diamonds have played host to their engineers on many occasions to test the system.  Setting up the PFX cameras, and placing a foam board on the front-plane of home-plate, they have been able to establish the level of accuracy of the px/pz values.  Within 1 inch.  Sometimes better.  In any case, you and I can trust those plate locations within a third of a baseball.  That’s not enough for me to care about, so you’ll see me exhibit great confidence on “red meat”, “corner nibblers” and “ankle burgers” diagnosis going forward.  Almost the same with the break numbers, too.

While the accuracy of the plate location is so precise, it makes you shake your head, the pitch tracking itself, from release all the way to plate, is nearly as good.  Alan Nathan has calculated an approximate 2.2 inch noise factor in pfx_x and pfx_z (not the same for each, I believe).  He has an improved approach that tightens that up a bit, and I believe Ike Hall’s ideas on data normalization along with a lengthy discussion of the coefficient of drag will take Sportvision closer to even better data quality.  But, let me tell you this much, this stuff is tight.  I can’t say “this curveball broke down 6 inches” for two reasons - it could be four or eight, and, Matt Lentzner would want me to add gravity and then adjust back to the hitter’s reference point.  But I can say, with the exception of Matt’s idea, which I think will become the way of the future, or close to it, “his average curveball breaks down 6 inches”.  I got to see the operations with my own eyes, and they super-impose actual and calculated trajectories on the display, and, wow, this stuff is pretty tight.

There are, however, issues.  Camera positions vary, since they need to be placed such that the screen/net is not in the way.  They don’t pick up all the way to the rubber (or, at the ground at least) to conserve pixels and get the richest data possible on the flight.  These are amongst potential factors leading to variance in release points.  I also include mound height in there.  I also had the chance to point out the Great American Ballpark anomaly, about 7 inches of distortion in spin movement, to Sportvision, and realized (a) my own obligation to provide the feedback and (b) their thirst for it.  Good scientists work transparently, and it produces better work.

This brings me to Kerry Wood’s back-up slider.  I have to take in some more data, but, so far, I do believe I can see it (I did show it at the Summit, so you can download the slide), but the GAB effect and the small sample don’t allow me to declare it so.  But, I think I’ll find it, probably after tonight’s game, if I can stay awake that long. 

Marv White did point out we are asking the piano playing cat to sing, but he seems to be driven by innovation as much as anyone.  He is a business man, too, and that’s a key to this.  It is a business venture, which I was pleased to learn more about, and developed an even greater understanding and respect for the work done by all the parties involved, from the stadium grounds crew, to teams and the league.  So, I’ll end this by thanking Marv, Justin, Ross, Rand, Catherine, who deserves to be thanked twice, so I will, Catherine, Greg, Peter, the Lookout Landing guys, Mike Fast, Max “Professor Pepper” (come back to the US and sign that ball, please), Ike, Tom, Zach, Helen, Alan, Mont, along with a great high school physics teacher from San Mateo, and everyone involved in the Gameday, the Summit and PITCHf/x.  Apologies to everyone I forgot. 

Padres at Cubs open game thread

B-REF PREVIEW | GAMEDAY | WEATHER | ACB CHAT ROOM

Randy Wolf vs. Cubs hitters:  .190/.239/.270 in 100 at-bats
Carlos Zambrano vs. Padres hitters:  .085/.204/.128 in 47 at-bats

Mid 50s, wind blowing in at 8 mph from right center field.  Game begins at 7:05 and is on CSN Chicago. 

The Cubs haven’t done much with Wolf in their careers, but the Padres have done even less with Zambrano though it’s only 47 at-bats. 

Where we stand now