The Cubs just signed Marlon Byrd to a 3-year, $15 million contract.

More to come...

• 2010 CHONE: .275/.337/.437, 4 Runs per 150 games, -3 runs defense
• 2010 Bill James: .279/.340/.438
• 2010 CAIRO: .275/.336/.440, .328 wOBA, 71 BR, 1 ZR/150, -1 UZR/150
• 2010 ZiPS: .283/.339/.450
• 2010 UZR from BtB: 0 UZR/150

VALUE

I've taken the average of the 4 projection systems available so far, as well as the average of the 4 defensive projections to get these numbers. 2 of the projection systems didn't have HBP so I took the average of the two that did to use for the other 2. 3 of the systems did not have GIDP so I used the one that did for the other 3. I did not include ROE or IBB in the wOBA projection. I don't know if Byrd gets on base a lot that way. If he does you might want to adjust the wOBA up a few ticks. Below is the average projection for Byrd:

Since he's moving to the NL we need to adjust that wOBA up a bit. I've gone with .348. The average defensive projection is -1 and if I recall, Byrd was about -2 runs on the bases last year. If I'm wrong, I'll change this later. Below is Byrd's value in 2010:

2.74 WAR per 700 plate appearaances. That makes him about .5 WAR better than league average. He's projected to get 530 PA making him worth 2.1 WAR and $9.5 million in 2010 based on $4.4 million per win. Players at his age get worse by about .5 WAR each year. That makes Byrd worth the following over the next 3 years:

• 2010: 2.1 WAR
• 2011: 1.6 WAR
• 2012: 1.1 WAR
• Total: 4.8 WAR

Let's leave the value per win at $4.4 million over the next few years since we have no idea when the economy is going to improve. Those WAR figures make Marlon Byrd worth the following:

• 2010: $9.2 million
• 2011: $7 million
• 2012: $4.8 million
• Total: $21.1 million

Over 3 seasons Marlon Byrd was worth $21.1 million and that assumes the value per win remains the same over the next 2 years. Byrd doesn't offer the upside that Milton Bradley did, but he's more reliable and undoubtedly a better teammate. It appears the contract is backloaded so that should leave the Cubs with some more money to spend.

One of the nice things about this signing is that Kosuke goes back to RF where he was an outstanding defender in 2008. He was an awful defender in 2009.

I'll have more on the payroll later.

I added this in the comments and it should go here:

Byrd's EQBRR over the last 3 years has been -2.8, -0.4, and 2.8. That's a weighted average of -0.6. Add about .1 wins to the total in the post.

2.2 WAR in 2010
1.7 WAR in 2011
1.2 WAR in 2012
Total: 5.1 WAR, $22.4 million

Even if we go with the $3.6 million that Rally has for free agents, $18.4 million and includes no additional value from any player other than free agents. Very good deal for the Cubs.

Gordon Whittenmeyer has the details of the contract on twitter.

• 2010: $3 million
• 2011: $5.5 million
• 2012: $6.5 million

That's not bad at all.