Yesterday we took a look at one way the Cubs could get to 90 wins.  If each player does a little bit better than expected, they are a 90-win club.  It should be pointed out right now that doing so added 6 wins to their true talent level so it's just as likely they win 78 games as it is they win 90.

(click the link to continue reading)

There are other ways the team can win 90.  I set up a poll this morning asking you which player you thought was most likely to perform better than expected.  Soriano had the most votes followed by Soto, Zambrano, Baker and Fukudome.  Since those were the most common votes, I wanted to see what those 5 players would have to do make this a 90-win club.  We know it's not likely every player exceed expectations.  It's more likely a handful of them do, but at the same time it's also just as likely that a handful perform worse than expected.  But this is ACB being optimistic so stick with me.

Below is what the WAR chart would look like with adjusting those 5 players upward to a point that they are a 90-win club.

I had to increase those 3 position player by quite a bit.  I increased Soriano's by nearly 40 points, Baker's by about 30 points, Soto's by about 25 points and Fukudome's by about 20 points.  Below are the pitchers with Zambrano's numbers adjusted.

I lowered Zambrano's FIP by about .5 runs per 9 innings.  That team above is exactly a 90-win team.

Now let's try to forget about increasing the production from the players and instead increase the playing time.  In other words, if the Cubs get lucky and their regulars stay healthy, can they win 90?

The pitchers:

That's not 90 wins, but it's pretty close.  88.3 was as close as I could get without it being absurd.  Well, some of those playing time projections are absurd already, but this is an exercise in trying to figure out how this team wins 90 games.

I have one more part that I'm going to post tomorrow.  I'm going to take a look at some minor league players who may step in and provide a boost to this team.  I'm mostly going to be using their minor league numbers as a projeciton so it's not very realistic, but I don't think it's out of the question to think that someone like Cashner or Jay Jackson can come up and be as good as Randy Wells was last year.  It's not likely, and it's not going to get the team to 90 wins, but it could help.

After that we'll get back to doing the player projections.