The path to 90 wins
Written by mb21   
Tuesday, 02 February 2010 21:37

I've always thought of the 90-win mark as the point at which a team is a legitimate contender that has a good chance of reaching the playoffs.  Berselius has already shown that this is an 84-win team.  I've updated his work with the addition of Xavier Nady and a few adjustments of my own.

Nady is going to get more playing time than Colvin and Fuld would have gotten so I've adjusted for that.  For the pitchers, I've adjusted the FIP for the two pitchers who are going to get some starts and some innings in relief.  We projected Marshall to get about an equal number of innings in each.  I believe the projections Berselius used were using Marshall as a reliever so I did a quick and dirt adjustment for his FIP as a starter by multiplying it by 1.25.  For Silva, I multiplied his FIP by 1.125 as a starter.  I've also added in defensive numbers for Soto and Hill based on the work over BtB.  So here is the updated table:

(click the link to read the rest)


Pos PA wOBA BR Fld WAR
Geovany Soto CA 556 .356 -0.20 0.40 3.8
Koyie Hill CA 157 .289 0.13 0.20 0.2
Derrek Lee 1B 658 .378 0.00 0.00 3.2
Micah Hoffpauir 1B 157 .339 0.06 0.00 0.2
Jeff Baker 2B 342 .334 0.00 0.00 1.1
Mike Fontenot 2B 315 .328 -0.10 0.40 1.0
Andres Blanco 2B 25 .303 -0.10 0.10 0.0
Ryan Theriot SS 620 .323 -0.20 0.30 1.9
Andres Blanco SS 105 .303 -0.10 0.10 0.1
Aramis Ramirez 3B 580 .377 -0.30 -0.10 3.7
Jeff Baker 3B 110 .334 0.00 0.00 0.3
Alfonso Soriano LF 508 .343 -0.20 0.20 1.3
Xavier Nady LF 116 .350 0.10 -0.40 0.3
Sam Fuld LF 20 .328 0.13 0.40 0.0
Marlon Byrd CF 553 .348 -0.30 0.00 2.2
Fukudome CF 50 .343 0.00 -0.90 0.1
Sam Fuld CF 100 .328 0.13 0.40 0.3
Fukudome RF 503 .343 -0.30 0.60 1.5
Xavier Nady RF 200 .350 0.10 -0.40 0.5
Sam Fuld RF 25 .318 0.00 0.00 0.0
Team 5700 .346 -0.14 0.14 21.6

Adding Nady to the roster added about .3 wins to the position players.  The pitchers are below.

Pitcher S/R IP FIP WAR
Ryan Dempster S 195 3.92 3.3
Carlos Zambrano S 193 4.05 2.9
Ted Lilly S 147 4.11 2.1
Tom Gorzelanny S 97 4.40 1.1
Randy Wells S 168 4.18 2.3
Carlos Silva S 52 5.31 0.1
Jeff Samardzija S 33 4.80 0.2
Sean Marshall S 55 5.25 0.1
S
Carlos Marmol R 72 3.60 1.4
John Grabow R 67 4.30 0.2
Sean Marshall R 50 4.20 0.2
Angel Guzman R 62 4.20 0.2
Jeff Samardzija R 41 4.80 -0.1
Esmailin Caridad R 56 5.00 -0.2
Jeff Gray R 30 4.30 0.0
John Gaub R 29 4.43 0.0
Maine R 30 4.73 0.0
Jeff Stevens R 33 4.40 0.0
Carlos Silva R 40 4.72 -0.1
Starters 940 4.26 12.2
Relievers 510 4.37 1.7
Total 1450 4.30 13.8

That's an 84 win team (83.9).  How do they get to 90?

Hitter Pos PA wOBA BR Fld WAR
Geovany Soto CA 556 .365 -0.20 0.40 4.2
Koyie Hill CA 157 .289 0.13 0.20 0.2
Derrek Lee 1B 658 .380 0.00 0.00 3.3
Micah Hoffpauir 1B 157 .339 0.06 0.00 0.2
Jeff Baker 2B 342 .345 0.00 0.00 1.4
Mike Fontenot 2B 315 .333 -0.10 0.40 1.1
Andres Blanco 2B 25 .303 -0.10 0.10 0.0
Ryan Theriot SS 620 .333 -0.20 0.30 2.4
Andres Blanco SS 105 .303 -0.10 0.10 0.1
Aramis Ramirez 3B 580 .385 -0.30 -0.10 4.1
Jeff Baker 3B 110 .345 0.00 0.00 0.4
Alfonso Soriano LF 508 .360 -0.20 0.20 2.0
Xavier Nady LF 116 .350 0.10 -0.40 0.3
Sam Fuld LF 20 .328 0.13 0.40 0.0
Marlon Byrd CF 553 .355 -0.30 0.00 2.5
Kosuke Fukudome CF 50 .345 0.00 -0.90 0.1
Sam Fuld CF 100 .328 0.13 0.40 0.3
Kosuke Fukudome RF 503 .345 -0.30 0.60 1.6
Xavier Nady RF 200 .350 0.10 -0.40 0.5
Sam Fuld RF 25 .318 0.00 0.00 0.0
Team 5700 .353 -0.14 0.14 24.9

I've just made a few adjustments to the wOBA.  It's changed the team wOBA projection by 7 points.

Pitcher S/R IP FIP WAR
Ryan Dempster S 195 3.80 3.6
Carlos Zambrano S 193 3.85 3.4
Ted Lilly S 147 4.00 2.3
Tom Gorzelanny S 97 4.20 1.3
Randy Wells S 168 4.10 2.5
Carlos Silva S 52 5.20 0.1
Jeff Samardzija S 33 4.80 0.2
Sean Marshall S 55 5.00 0.3
S
Carlos Marmol R 72 3.40 1.8
John Grabow R 67 4.00 0.5
Sean Marshall R 50 4.00 0.3
Angel Guzman R 62 3.90 0.4
Jeff Samardzija R 41 4.40 0.0
Esmailin Caridad R 56 4.50 0.0
Jeff Gray R 30 4.30 0.0
John Gaub R 29 4.43 0.0
Maine R 30 4.73 0.0
Jeff Stevens R 33 4.40 0.0
Carlos Silva R 40 4.72 -0.1
Starters 940 4.12 13.8
Relievers 510 4.16 3.0
Total 1450 4.13 16.8

Now it's a 90-win team.  Just barely 90 wins.  I haven't made any ridiculous adjustments, but I have made most every player better than their projection and we know that won't happen.  If the Cubs get to 90 wins it's likely going to be because most players reach their projections and a few overperform by a significant amount.  Another way the team is more likely to get to 90 wins is by staying healthy.  That would mean more innings pitched and more plate appearances by the better players.  Tomorrow we'll take a look at these other 2 ways the team could win 90 games in 2010.

Tags:
< Prev   Next >
Last Updated on Monday, 29 March 2010 17:40
 

Add comment

By posting comments, opinions or questions at Another Cubs Blog, you, the poster, agree to ask yourself one question before hitting the send button: What Would Al Do? Al is the model blogger/commenter to which we should all aspire. If Al would do it, you should. If he wouldn't, get the fuck out.


Security code
Refresh

Friends of ACB

Find superb Cubs tickets for the 2010 season from OnlineSeats and enjoy a day game at Wrigley Field. Also look for other MLB baseball games, like division rival Cardinals tickets for Busch Stadium and Brewers seats for Miller Park.

Do you like to play online poker?

Before you bet online on the Cubs, check this online sports betting page for more info. This site also offers the best online casino list.
mlb baseball picks

Get live sports odds including MLB odds as well as the updated baseba ll schedule for each MLB team including a score updated Chicago Cubs Schedule

sports betting

Online MLB betting at BetUS online sportsbook - America's source for sports betting. Get the scoop on baseball odds, and warm up your arm to bet on Chicago Cubs baseball, plus Chicago Bears football betting!

About Bloguin

Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics.

Advertisers

The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.

Bloggers Wanted

The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.

The Bloguin Login

The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account!