A couple years ago we started a series of posts that became as popular as it did controversial.  Some people loved the series and some people just thought we went too far.  The Theriot Files is back and to kick things off in 2010 we're bringing back the classic theme song.  Click the play button to listen to it.

The Cubs have come to an agreement with 6 of their 8 arbitration eligible players already.  They've exchanged figures with Marmol and Theriot.  The discrpancy between the Cubs offer and Theriot's figure is considerable for a player eligible for arbitration for the first time.  The Cubs have offered $2.6 million while Theriot wants $3.4 million.

The two sides will continue negotiate and if an agreement cannot be reached, they'll go to an arbitration hearing sometime this month.  If that happens, the arbitrators will pick which amount Theriot deserves.  Once it reaches that point, there is no compromise.  Theriot would earn either $2.6 million or $3.4 million.

The Cubs have not gone to an arbitration hearing with any player since Mark Grace, so it's highly unlikely that this one does.  The Cubs and Carlos Zambrano nearly went to the hearing in 2007.  The two sides agreed on a compromise while waiting to see the arbitrators.

Before you read on, please vote on whether or not you think the Cubs should take Theriot to an arbitration hearing.  Please consider that the initial offers are part of a negotiation between two parties.  In other words, the Cubs are willing to pay a little more and Theriot is willing to take a little less.  How much so is anybody's guess.  So, if you think the Cubs would be willing to go as high as $2.9 million, would Ryan Theriot accept that?

I'm unsure what to think about this.  I thought about putting together a pros and cons list.  The first thing in the pro column would be saving money.  Then I thought of the first thing in the con column: pissing a player off over such a small amount of money.  But would the Cubs really have to piss Theriot off?

I'm not sure there's a simple answer to that.  The fact is that we tend to value our contributions more than our employers do.  We think we're more valuable than we really are.  I've yet to meet a single person who thinks he should be paid less for what he is doing.  In fact, I can't think of anybody who hasn't at one point complained about the salary he or she is earning.

We know how much Ryan Theriot is worth.

He's projected to be about the same hitter as last year and not quite as good on defense.  First-year arbitration eligible players have signed contracts for about $1.1 million per win this offseason.  So all we need to know is how much we're projecting Theriot to be worth in 2010 and we know how much he should receive in arbitration.  Simple enough.

				Per 700 PAs
Hitter	Pos	PA	wOBA	Hit	BR	Pos	Fld	Rep	WAR	FA $	WAR
Ryan Theriot	SS	620	.321	-0.85	0.00	0.75	0.30	2.00	2.20	$9.0	1.9

That makes Theriot worth $2.1 million in arbitration.  If Theriot wants $3 million as some writers have suggested, the Cubs should battle it out in front if the arbitrator.  As long as the team didn't offer some ridiculously low offer, the Cubs probably win that battle.

Theriot is worth $2.1 million based on the 1.9 WAR projection.  If we used his projection over 700 PA, he's worth $2.4 million.  The Cubs offer is more than generous and Ryan Theriot is just a little crazy if he thinks he's worth $3.4 million.

So the question is whether or not it's worth pissing a player off to save a few hundred thousand dollars.  I do think the Cubs would win.  WV23 thinks the Cubs should take him to arbitration.  He makes a good point in that he's not in the Cubs long-term plans.

Very soon, the Cubs won't need Theriot - or at least not at shortstop, if virtually every scout and prospect ranking service is to believed. Starlin Castro is the shortstop of the future.

Yes, Theriot could be moved over to second, as he has offered to do in a fit of self-preservation. Or he could be traded, undoubtedly for a reliever. They could non-tender him.

Whatever happens, the Cubs should not believe he is a vital piece in the coming years - especially when they have a cost-controlled soon-to-be 20-year-old blue-chip prospect waiting in the wings.

Bruce Miles was on the radio last night.  Melissa said that he speculated the Cubs could non-tender Ryan Theriot after this season.  I think that would be somewhat stupid.  The guy does have value even if it's not as much as the average fan thinks.

I guess WV23 has convinced me the Cubs should take this to a hearing.  If that's a consideration the Cubs should stand firm with their $2.6 million offer.  It's a good offer for Theriot and more than he's worth even if he was to get 700 PA.  Paying him more this year means paying him even more next year and the year after.  I think this the possibility of clubhouse chemistry issues is worth the savings now and additional savings later on.

Bruce Levine says the two sides have not been able to reach a compromise meaning it very well could be headed to arbitration.