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Keith Law has published his list of the top 100 prospects for 2010. His team rankings came out yesterday, and he ranked the Cubs 7th, which is a big jump from the last few years. Ryno and Sam are likely the people who know the most about the Cubs minor league system at ACB, but it seems that the improvement over the last year has piqued interest in the Cubs’ minor league prospects. At least that is the case for me.
Law and Jim Callis are probably the purveyors of minor league analysis that I like/trust the most, with Sickels after that and Goldstein of BP way after that. Law’s analysis is by subscription only, so I’m not going to copy and paste what he wrote. He’s lucky enough to make his living this way. What I will do is summarize or highlight some of what he said about each of the Cubs he put in his top 100, obviously along with their ranking. Also, he uses whether or not the player still has rookie status as his cutoff. He describes his ranking approach:
"When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you."
Secondly, I love polls, and I’ve asked that we have more of them here. If you don’t like polls, maybe we can set up a poll to see whether or not to have polls here. Seriously though, since I don’t know how to set one up, perhaps you can reply in the comments with the prospect that you think will provide the most value to the ML Cubs in 2010.
On to the prospects….(click here to read the rest)
12. Starlin Castro- Law raves about Castro, calling him one of the most exciting position player prospects in the minors. His hitting is based on quick wrists, hand-eye coordination, and a keen ability to recognize breaking balls for such a young player. Lw expects more power to develop as Castro ages. K-Law also likes his range at SS, but says his best defensive attribute is his arm strength, rating 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale.
I can't wait to see Castro at SS for CHC.
30. Josh Vitters- Law still really believes in Vitters bat, although he doesn point out the huge walk problem. He says Vitters has great contact and plate coverage and projects him as a .300 hitter with 30 homer power but a .320 OBP. Pretty funny. Also, Law says his defense is playable at 3rd and his arm strength is good.
This ranking is higher than I expected; I wonder if Vitters is even a top 50. (just wait until you see the next prospect). The walks are a huge issue, but it's nice to see someone express this much confidence in his power.
50. Jay Jackson- Keith Law loves Jackson. He sees JJ as a starter long term who could probably use a year in AAA, although he could appear in CHC out of the pen this year. Law says he misses plenty of bats and is very athletic. He does struggle some getting lefties out- continued development of his change-up will the the key here. He features 4 quality pitches, with Law seeing the slider as the best.
This is the most surprising ranking to me. This is very encouraging. The Cubs have some nice arms coming along with Jackson, Cashner, Carpenter, Rhee and others. Perhaps the obsession with a one year veteran pen arm is to assure a full season of development in the minors for Jackson and Cashner. Just a guess.
79. Andrew Cashner- Law calls Cashner a groundball pitcher with a big arm, but not of the extreme GB variety. He doesn't miss as many bats as one would expect with such an arm and FB velo. Law doesn't believe Cashner's HR rate last year was a refelction of a skill Cashner has, and suggests he'll have to miss more bats to stick as a starter.
This is about where Cashner ranks on other lists. The Cubs seem to want to let him try as a starter for as long as possible, which seems like the right decision. It seems that his change-up, GB rate and swings and misses will determine if he can start at the ML level, and even if he can't the CUbs have a great pen arm on their hands.
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