Since we know the Cubs will try to contend next year, it's worth some time trying to figure out what the Cubs need to do to get there.  I'm going to use the 75 wins for the returning Cubs that we discussed awhile back.  That's the starting point.  There are obviously several ways the Cubs could contend next season.  The easiest way would be just to put a .500 team on the field and pray for good luck.  A .500 team will win somewhere between 67 and 94 games by luck alone.  However, counting on luck to contend is kind of silly.  The next easiest way is to sign a bunch of players that improves the team.  That's what we'll do here.

It starts with Cliff Lee.  He's a free agent at the end of the season and based on his current rest of season projection, we could expect Lee to be worth about 6.1 wins in 2011.  I'm too lazy to park and league adjust the numbers so it may be a bit higher.  I'm using 200 innings and he could also throw more than that, but it's safer to expect fewer wins.

But adding Lee doesn't just improve the team by 6 wins.  The Cubs rotation next year is currently set and would include Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva and Carlos Zambrano.  It's highly unlikely Zambrano is still with the team so that's who Lee would replace.  Zambrano's projection isn't all that bad.  He's somewhere between 2 and 3 wins.  There's serious doubt about whether or not he's actually worth that much, but based on the projections he is.  Replacing Zambrano with Cliff Lee adds 3-4 wins.  We'll go with 4 because we're generous.  They're now at 79 wins and their rotation is Cliff Lee, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva.

It's going to cost a lot of money to sign Lee.  If we use the 6.1 win projection and subtract half a win each, it makes Lee worth a 7-year deal for $173 million.  That includes 5% inflation each season.  It could very well be more than that.

The Cubs would backload the deal so they could add more talent now.  Lee's 6.1 projected wins is worth about $29 million in 2011.  His 3.1 projected wins in 2017  is worth $19.6 million.  It's in the player's interest to get as much of his money now and it's in the team's interest to give as little of that money now.  Let's say they pay Lee $13 million in 2011.  That leaves $160 million over the next 6 seasons.

2011: $13 (million)
2012: $20
2013: $25
2014: $28
2015: $29
2016: $29
2017: $29

That increases the Cubs 2011 payroll to $133 to $138 million.  Let's also be generous and say the Cubs only play half of Carlos Zambrano's remaining contract each season.  Take away $9 million and we're down to $124 to $129 million (halfway point of $127.5 is what we'll use from this point forward).  79 wins.

Sign Carl Crawford to play LF.  This moves Alfonso Soriano to 1st base.  Crawford can be expected to get a 5-year deal for about $90 million and be worth close to 5 wins next season.  He would replace Tyler Colvin or Kosuke Fukudome so that's about a 3-4 win improvement.  Here's how a contract for Crawford might look.

2011: $12 (million)
2012: $18
2013: $19
2014: $20
2015: $21

The payroll is up to $139.5 million and the team is now at about 82 wins.  That makes Kosuke Fukudome expendable.  Let's say the Cubs pay half of his contract and free up $7 million.  We're back down $132.5 million.

There is still around $10-12 million to spend.  The Cubs could go with Theriot at 2nd or a combination of two other players who aren't very good in Fontenot and Baker or they could pick up another player.

Before we look at 2nd base, the Cubs could also still pick up Crawford and play him in RF.  They'd keep Soriano in LF.  Adam Dunn is a free agent.  Or they could re-sign Derrek Lee.  Dunn is so awful at defense that the difference between he and Lee is minimal.  In fact, Lee might even be better at this point in their careers.  Lee would probably sign for less money than Dunn so let's go with him.  2 years and $16 million paying him $6 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012.  That's about 2 more wins.  $138.5 million, 84 wins.

Orlando Hudson might be the best 2nd baseman available.  Chone Figgins is another possibility, but he's not much better than Hudson and would be more expensive.  Hudson could probably be signed for 2 years and about $10  million ($4 million in 2011 and 6 million in 2012).  He'd be worth 2-3 wins.

$144.5 million, 86 to 87 wins, but this includes a total of about $5 million to Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker.  The Cubs would only need 1 of them and it wouldn't be Theriot.  Figure they only need $1.5 million for the backup spot there.  That reduces the payroll down to $141 million.  There's be room to sign someone else who wouldn't provide much value.

That's about the best I can do just using the free agent market.  It's entirely possible this could happen, but it's also not at all likely.

Lee and Crawford are both Type A free agents so the Cubs would lose their 2nd and 3rd round picks in the 2011 draft.  Their 1st round pick will be protected.

Also, let's not forget the impact that these deals would have on the Cubs in the future.  The Cubs would have about $96 million locked up in just 7 players under contract for the 2012 season if they were to do this.  Winning more than a couple years (2011 and 2012) would be very difficult for this team.  The Cubs would be right back to where they are right now.

While signing all of these players does put the Cubs close to the discussion of being a contender, it's only a band-aid.  Don't get me wrong.  I'll be really excited to watch the 2011 team and the 2012 team, but I won't be looking forward to what happens after that.