2010 Cubs: Sean Marshall
Written by mb21   
Saturday, 13 March 2010 18:42

Sean Marshall has been in the swingman role for most of his career and 2010 may be no different.  The Cubs do have two spots open in the rotation with Ted Lilly beginning the season on the DL.  The locks for the rotation are Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells.  Lilly will join the rotation when he's ready, which probably won't be any later than the end of April.

Berselius already took a look at how many times the 5th starter may be necessary in the early part of the season.  Over the next few days we're going to publish the projections for the 4 pitchers battling it out for those 2 spots.  Those pitchers are Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, Carlos Silva and Jeff Samardzija.  We've already covered the top 4 starters (including Lilly) so now it's time to see who those 2 starters should be.  Lou isn't going to look at any projections to make his decision so who knows who he ends up choosing?  I don't.

I've added another projection system.  Fantistics was the best system last year at projecting playing time.  As far as projecting OPS, it only trailed CHONE and ZiPS.

Marshall's 2010 projections

Projection ERA IP H HR BB SO FIP
Bill James 4.06 71 70 8 27 53 4.34
CHONE 3.97 59 57 6 20 49 3.88
Marcel 4.17 82 82 10 31 66 4.38
CAIRO 4.47 67 71 8 25 51 4.44
PECOTA 3.82 105 100 10 39 90 3.81
ZiPS 3.93 69 65 8 25 57 4.10
CBS 4.56 150 150 19 63 114 4.57
Oliver 4.15 70 69 8 24 53 4.16
Fantistics 4.26 102 104 11 37 86 3.97
Average 4.15 86 85 10 32 69 4.18

Befpre you start saying that Marshall's FIP is projected to be higher than Wells so therefore he should automatically be given a spot, remember that these aren't just innings as a starter.  We know that it's easier to reliever than to start.  It's about 1 run per 9 innings easier (.8 to 1 run).  A couple of the systems don't include games pitched or games started, making any adjustments very difficult to make.  Let's take the 2 systems that we know have projected Sean Marshall to be only a reliever.  Those systems are ZiPS (based entirely on innings pitched) and PECOTA (70 G, 0 GS).  The weighted means PECOTA had 55 G, 0 GS so unlike Caridad and others who have projected innings as a starter and a reliever that PECOTA makes no adjustments for, there are none needed here.  PECOTA projects Sean Marshall as a full-time reliever who sill post a 3.82 ERA and a 3.81 FIP.

The average between ZiPS and PECOTA is about 3.95 FIP.  This means that we can expect his FIP as a starter to be somewhere between 4.75 and 4.95.  We'll say 4.85.  Remember the 4.85 as a starter when we get to the other 3 candidates.

We projected Marshall would get 42 innings as a starter and 53 innings as a reliever.  We're using the 4.18 FIP that we have as the average, because that's what we've been doing for the player projections.  When we get closer to the season, we'll try to make some adjustments for bullpen and starting.


 IP_Start IP_Relief ERA WAR_Start WAR_Relief WAR $WAR Actual Diff.
Marshall 42 53 4.18 0.63 0.38 1.00 $4.91 $0.95 $3.96

1 win out of Marshall who is making just under a million dollars is pretty good.

Tags:
Comments (52)
 
More Articles...
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 Next > End >>

Page 1 of 6

About Bloguin

Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics.

Advertisers

The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.

Bloggers Wanted

The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.

The Bloguin Login

The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account!