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Cubs up 2-0 early. Dempster pitching well. Can’t help but feel like the Cubs need to keep the ‘Stros under 2 if they’re going to win this game.
Cubs @ Astros Open Game Thread
Posted by BellwetherMeltdown on 07/20/08 at 07:40 AM • 144 Comments
2. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 08:51 AM
Dempster looking really good, let’s get that 1st road win and start a streak
4. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 08:52 AM
and every time I look at gameday when the cardinals are playing rick ankiel either hits a HR or doubles in a run.
9. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:07 AM
Fontenot now has more HRs than Fukudome in about 220 fewer plate appearances.
11. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:12 AM
MD—not trying to rehash an old argument, but I still do not understand how you think Colvin has “tremendous” value. The fact that he is a top 5 prospect in our organization is more telling of how strong our farm system is than how good of a prospect Colvin is.
The guy is a college trained hitter who after has a .727 OPS in 625 ABs at the AA level spanning two seasons. He has shown limited secondary skills since Day 1 of his professional career, and he’s a corner outfielder to boot.
I threw out the future 4th outfielder tag based on scouting reports by a lot of smart people including Keith Law, who didn’t even mention Colvin in his preseason top 100 prospects—which was before Colvin OPSed .679 in his second go-round in the southern league.
12. BellwetherMeltdown — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:13 AM
Thanks a lot for posting this, Bell. Appreciate it.
No problem. I’d have put more effort into the post but I figured it was more important to get it up quickly.
14. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:14 AM
On the other hand, Jef7 is absolutely dealing right now in Iowa. Through 5 innings he’s allowed 0 runs on 1 hit and 1 BB while striking out 8 batters
16. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:16 AM
(dying laughing), he should’ve been rung up on that check swing, then he gets called out on a ball off the plate.
17. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:16 AM
He’s also coaxed 4 groundouts to 3 flyballs while throwing 42 of his 67 pitches for strikes.
22. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:26 AM
That was some good pitching from Dempster and one horrible call by the umpire, but I’ll gladly take it.
did Backe check his swing on the previous pitch? I got the astros announcers and they didn’t show any replay.
23. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:26 AM
So JefF7 might be somebody? And Ryan Dempster is good? Oh-me-oh-my.
haha Seriously… go figure
24. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:29 AM
Why can’t Colvin play CF? He’s played 100 games there the past two years. Wait, that’s all he’s ever played, no? Well, that’s according to baseball-reference.com.
25. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:29 AM
On the other hand, Jef7 is absolutely dealing right now in Iowa. Through 5 innings he’s allowed 0 runs on 1 hit and 1 BB while striking out 8 batters
That is exactly why Colvin has tremendous value. Not one person involved in baseball has ever denied the talent Samardzija has despite pitching worse than someone 5 times worse than les Walrond. He might be living up to those expectations and Colvin may as well. Take a look at the one thing he’s improved this year, Jack. His patience. I’m awfully impressed how much he’s worked on working the count and getting on base via the walk. There’s never been any question about his ability to hit and he’ll adjust and begin hitting again.
Most importantly, my opinion is irrelevant. You can’t sit here and tell me he doesn’t have value to another organization. It’s simply false and it always will be. Anybody with the tools he possesses has great value, especially at that age.
Back to Samardzija, everybody here, myself included beginning this season, talked about how much he sucked. Scouts still raved about him and Ryno even suggested last year and multiple times this year that he should be promoted just to challenge him. It worked. So far. The fact his strikeouts have increased big time is enough for me to say that it’s likely he WAS in fact working on one or two things and his overall numbers were never a concern. Colvin is obviously working on his patience this year and he’s the first hitter of his skill set the organization has had that has shown tremendous improvement in his patience.
For what it’s worth, scouts are split on his ability to play CF in the future. Some have said he can and will remain in CF and others have said he’ll move to a corner. Since the Cubs have Soriano and Fukudome, he’ll stay in CF.
29. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:34 AM
So JefF7 might be somebody? And Ryan Dempster is good? Oh-me-oh-my.
Who would have guessed that? Hard to believe before the season even one of them might be somebody.
the K’s are what gives me great hope. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning in a league that’s pretty much a hitter’s paradise.
30. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:35 AM
I thought Sean Marshall was doing that??? hahahahhahahah
The Cubs traded their “best” young pitcher away, and still have at least two, and maybe three guys (hill being the third) that should be pitching over Marquis. again,
hahahahahahahahah
31. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:36 AM
But MD—how impressive are those tools really? I mean, apparently not good enough to land him on Keith Law’s top 100.
Not that KLaw is the end all be all of prospect evaluation, but I mean if he really had such oustanding tools, you’d have to imagine he at least crack the top 100.
The guy was a enormous reach at 13th overall, and there absolutley has been doubt in the past as to whether or not he can indeed hit. He’s yet to hit for legit power in his career, and the fact that he’s walking more this season doesn’t change the fact he’s hitting under .240
A performance analysis based organziation like Neal Huntington’s Pirates doesn’t have a ton of use for a college hitter hitting .240 in his second crack at AA.
32. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:36 AM
Well, Cone has been right about Dempster (although the “tiring” thing still lingers) and Ryno seems to have been right about Samardzija. I don’t know anyone who was advocating both would dominate. But then… I don’t get “around” much.
33. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:37 AM
I forgot about Hill. If Samardzija keeps this up, and let’s be honest here, he’s NEVER struck out batters at this rate for any period of time so there is good reason to believe he can keep it up. If he does, the Cubs are stocked in pitching talent despite trading Gallagher away as you said.
34. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:40 AM
Colvin has a career ISO of .177. Is there a an ISO OBP? Well, Colvin’s has gone from .022 to .062. And yes, the fact that he’s walking more does change the “fact” that he’s hitting less.
35. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:41 AM
But MD—how impressive are those tools really? I mean, apparently not good enough to land him on Keith Law’s top 100.
I have more faith in Ryno’s ability to project minor league talent than I do Keith Law. he’s a hack, but Colvin isn’t a top 100 prospect anyway. Borderline, but he’s not there yet.
The point is, Jack, that every organization in baseball would take their chance with Colvin. Not one would ignore the chance to get him. As much as Mark Pawelek has sucked, many organizations reportedly would love to get him. There is no doubt whatsoever that Colvin has a lot of value. he’s got more than Felix Pie for sure.
36. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:42 AM
Dempster might be able to go 8 today and with a little luck maybe a complete game. 71 pitches thru 6.
37. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:42 AM
The guy is in his second go-round at AA and is doing worse in his second try. He’s been called a fourth-outfielder repeatedly by guys like KLaw and Kevin Goldstein. His performane thus far in his career speaks for itself, and the fact that few believe he can stick in center pretty much damn his chances of becoming a valuable major league.
41. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:44 AM
Colvin has some power for being young for his level and despite his struggles this year, as tyger showed, he’s improved the one area everybody complained most about. It will take time to get used to hitting deep in the count, but my guess is he can so quickly double or triple his walks he’ll figure out how to hit again.
43. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:44 AM
22 isn’t all that young for AA. Felix was in his second trip through Iowa at 22.
44. Harry Pavlidis — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:45 AM
I think Dempster goes the distance and gives Blisters and the Set Up Crew the night off.
45. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:45 AM
Colvin’s BB% has increased from 3.9% to 8.3% while his K% has dropped from 20% to 17.9%.
46. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:46 AM
Colvin’s only shot at becoming a valuable contributor is if he sticks in center. If he can do that, it totally changes the ballgame on him. But I’m basing my opinion on him asssuming he has no choice but to play a corner.
51. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:50 AM
If Dempster struggles in the 8th/early 9th and gets through Berkman, Lee and Tejada, I wouldn’t mind Marmol facing Blum, Pence and Towels—or whatever hack pH they put in.
52. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:53 AM
Actually, Keith Law is probably one of the smartest people I’ve ever heard talk, bar none, no hyperbole.
53. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:53 AM
Jack, Colvin is 22, young for his level, a 5-tool player. He has value. A lot of value. Name one guy like him who didn’t have much value? You can’t.
Besides, earlier in the thread I said they could trade him PLUS a lower prospect for Nady. Xavier Nady. Nady, Xavier. We’re not talking about a star or one in the making here. We’re talking about a journeyman outfielder who has done well for himself in Pittsburgh, a shitty team.
54. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:54 AM
The guys speaks like 3 languages. His chats at ESPN are by far the best.
56. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:55 AM
22 isn’t all that young for AA. Felix was in his second trip through Iowa at 22.
The average of the Southern League last year was 25.7. I’m assuming it’s about the same this year. Of course it’s young for the level. Is it young for you description of what a talented prospect should be doing? Apparently not, but it is still young for the level.
comparisons to Felix Pie are silly. Pie is now in his 3rd try at AAA and having his worst season yet and has never shown an ability to improve at getting on base like colvin has.
57. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:57 AM
Colvin’s BB% has increased from 3.9% to 8.3% while his K% has dropped from 20% to 17.9%.
That’s more impressive than I thought. Decreasing your strikeout rate while increasing your walk rate is very very hard to do. It just doesn’t happen often. So despite the poor overall numbers, he’s made some important strides forward this year. How it goes after this? Who knows, but he’s improved the one area of his game he had to improve so I’ll consider it a success.
58. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 09:58 AM
MD- at 22, Colvin is not that much younger than most people there.
And I have never once heard Colvin been called a 5-tool guy. Doesn’t hit for power, probably never will. Doesn’t run a ton, and probably doesn’t have the glove to play center.
Nady, Xavier= an underrated, arb-eligible bat who is a better hitter than Colvin ever will be. Bottom line is, if people are interested in him, a lot of teams can offer more than a guy who is hitting under .240 in his second trip through AA.
59. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:00 AM
I’m basing my opinion on him asssuming he has no choice but to play a corner.
that’s a mistake. The Cubs don’t have an opening in the corners so they obviously think he can stick in CF. if Jim Edmonds or Reed Johnson can play CF, Colvin will make it look easy out there.
60. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:00 AM
Throwing out the average age of someone in AA doesn’t tell you shit. I wanna know what the average age of a prospect at AA is. Seriously—- 22 is just not that young for AA. It isn’t old. But for a first round talent it sounds just about right. Colvin was a first rounder who is currently sucking ass in his second try in the SOuthern League. He’s not one of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and sure as shit won’t be after a terrible 2008
61. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:01 AM
If Dempster struggles in the 8th/early 9th and gets through Berkman, Lee and Tejada, I wouldn’t mind Marmol facing Blum, Pence and Towels—or whatever hack pH they put in.
I really don’t want to see Marmol unless the Cubs get another few runs. I know with Wood being unavailable you have to use him sometime. I just don’t want to see it.
62. BellwetherMeltdown — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:01 AM
I think Dempster goes the distance and gives Blisters and the Set Up Crew the night off.
63. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:02 AM
if Jim Edmonds or Reed Johnson can play CF, Colvin will make it look easy out there.
I’d take your word on that if you were a scout, which you aren’t so I won’t. If he plays out there, it’ll probably be a stretch, and odds are he’ll never be very good, even if they run him out there.
Of course, that’s assuming he ever hits enough to make it the bigs.
64. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:02 AM
Well, he did say “bottom line is…” maddog, so he must be right. I believe that sort of thing ends the debate.
As for Colvin, next year is obviously the biggest yet. I’d like to see him moved to AAA sometime next month just so he gets a taste of it and start out there next year. Either that, or see if he can start in AA next year continuing to use his patience while using his “age” to dominate. If so, early promotion to AAA in late May/early June.
67. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:06 AM
24/25 - MLB rookie
23/24 - AAA
22/23 - AA
21/22 - A+
20/21 - A
19/20 - short-season
I just made those up, but those don’t seem right to you?
68. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:06 AM
Throwing out the average age of someone in AA doesn’t tell you shit. I wanna know what the average age of a prospect at AA is
So are you the one who defines what a prospect is? The reason you take averages is to avoid cherry picking the data as you’re trying to do. I could care less the average age after you’ve cherry picked it down to the age you’re wanting to find. I mean, if we take the average of all the players under 21 in AA, he’s way old for the league.
69. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:06 AM
I think Lou will go with Howry in the 9th unless Dempster somehow gets thru the 8th with 6 pitches.
71. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:08 AM
tyger, you wanna promote a guy to AAA after he’s OPSing .679 in AA?
I did say either/or. I will say, since you asked (or not), I find it hilarious that you quoted a performance-based org. like Huntington and then threw out someone’s batting average. I got a chuckle out of that.
72. BellwetherMeltdown — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:09 AM
with that strike out Demp is at 93. He’s going the distance here.
73. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:09 AM
As for Colvin, next year is obviously the biggest yet. I’d like to see him moved to AAA sometime next month just so he gets a taste of it and start out there next year.
I think that’s what the plan is for him, but I’m not sure anymore with Pie back in the minors. The funny thing is that colvin would move up to AAA and immediately post an .875 OPS and people would be saying all kinds of great things about him. I think the reason he’s still at AA is so the Cubs can watch his actual progress knowing that what he does in AAA is worthless (for hitters anyway). The PCL is just such a hitters league you can’t take any batting stats there seriously.
74. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:09 AM
When did I ever say that only I can decide who is a good prospect? Just take a look around. Good prospects hit when they’re 22 and AA. Colvin is not. And it’s his second try.
I’m not saying that the guy is old or anything for the league. But the excuse “Oh well, he’s only 22” doesn’t work at AA. Just doesn’t
Futhermore, I dunno why you guys wanna be rude about the whole thing. I’m just disagreeing is all.
75. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:11 AM
I’d take your word on that if you were a scout, which you aren’t so I won’t. If he plays out there, it’ll probably be a stretch, and odds are he’ll never be very good, even if they run him out there.
so you just choose to believe the scouts that believe he can’t play CF and ignore the ones who do? That’s convenient.
76. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:12 AM
I threw out his BA for brevity reasons, seeing as I had already thrown out the .679 OPS like 10 times. So chuckle away tyger, but that doesn’t change the fact that colvin is a shitty hitter.
77. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:12 AM
You call it his second “try”, but he’s obviously taking more pitches and working on being patient. I don’t see how this doesn’t factor into your thinking at all.
78. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:13 AM
with that strike out Demp is at 93. He’s going the distance here.
he’s at 104 after 8. Not sure if he will.
79. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:13 AM
He’s not one of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and sure as shit won’t be after a terrible 2008
Do you mind pointing me to the comment where anyone on this site has EVER said he was a top 100 prospect? Do you really believe that the only minor leaguers who have value are top 100 prospects? Because keith Law said so?
That sucks because that means each organization has 3 prospects and the cubs just traded their 3 away to get Harden.
80. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:14 AM
Why was he such a better hitter last year than this year? You have yet to answer for that.
81. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:14 AM
MD- I understand how it may look like I’m ignoring the opinion of scouts who think he can play center, but the truth is I just simply haven’t seen anyone say they think he can. If I had heard that from any one scout then maybe I’d have a different opinion. But since I have literally heard 0 people say they think he can stick in center, I’m gonna go with the opinions I have heard saying he’ll have to move.
I’m not saying there isn’t anyone who thinks he can stay there. I’m just saying I haven’t heard anyone say that.
82. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:16 AM
No one is saying the guy is great, but if he’s your third best outfielder and he’s playing a passable CF, then he isn’t going to be bad at that.
83. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:16 AM
Futhermore, I dunno why you guys wanna be rude about the whole thing. I’m just disagreeing is all.
you’re not just disagreeing. Early in the thread you mocked the idea and said “why don’t we get Bay” in that same deal?
If you want to show evidence as to why 22 is old for the Southern League, do so, but until you do, you don’t get to select the data you want that confirms your opinion that 22 isn’t old. What’s the average age for a rookie that plays about 10 years? I’m not positive on this, but I think it’s about 25. So you’re going to try and tell me 22 is young for a level just one or two promotions away from being in the big leagues when it’s 3 years under the average of a big leaguer who has an extended career? Nonsense.
87. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:19 AM
There could be 100 reasons why he hit better last year. Maybe this new approach just doesn’t suit him.
Either way, we’re obviously not going anywhere with this argument. I’ve tried to respectfully disagree with your guys’ opinion, but for some reason you’d rather get all pissy about it.
I’m simply of the opinion that a good prospect doesn’t perform the way Colvin is now and has been for some time. Since odds are he won’t (or at least shouldn’t) stick in center, my opinion is that he will never be a valuable major leaguer, and that the Pirates probably think (or rather know) that they could do better for a bat like Nady’s in July.
88. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:19 AM
That he’s played 161 games out of 220+ in A+ and AA does nothing for you? (inc. data for A-)
90. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:19 AM
The thing is, Jack, you’ve never heard 1 scout say he cannot stick in CF. i’ve read Goldstein and he never said that. He said some scouts don’t believe he can. Big difference between cannot stick there and “some believe” he won’t.
Besides, where he plays isn’t an issue of his defense, it’s an issue of where there’s an opening and for the cubs it is obviously CF.
91. Harry Pavlidis — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:21 AM
I guess we’re tiring down the astro bullpen for((insert next opponent here))
92. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:22 AM
I didn’t realize you took such offense to a pretty off-the-cuff remark there MD. I’ve said things like that around here in the past without getting you so worked up.
Seriously MD. I’ve always been totally respectful at your place. I don’t think it’s a ton to ask to just respect someone’s opinion if they disagree.
93. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:22 AM
And as MD said, you mocked right off the bat. Whether we should be better men or not, that puts anyone in a pissy defensive mood.
95. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:25 AM
I really didn’t think it was that abrasive of a comment. I simply didn’t realize who differently we felt about Colvin. Had I known that maybe I’d have understood you guys getting pissy and defensive, but since then I’ve just tried to discuss here.
96. BellwetherMeltdown — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:25 AM
Mike Fontenot is a lot better than I’ve given him credit for. Nice to take a big lead here.
I think I’m gonna start calling him Mike ISOenot.
97. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:25 AM
good to see the cubs whacking the ball around after what seems like an eternity
100. BellwetherMeltdown — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:27 AM
Jim Thome just got his 2000th hit
525 of them are home runs.
103. Harry Pavlidis — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:30 AM
So, I know why you let Z bat for himself when he’s done pitching, but Dempster?
104. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:31 AM
So, I know why you let Z bat for himself when he’s done pitching, but Dempster?
maybe he wasn’t done with a 4-0 lead
109. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:35 AM
now if SD can add some runs and hang on at STL it would make my day.
112. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:40 AM
MD—here are the questions that matter when concerning the age of Southern Leaguers.
How many of those 47 22 and under guys are legit prospects? How many of the those 350+ are?
At 22 years old, considering he’s a college trained hitter, it makes perfect sense that he’s in AA. If he struggles, you can chalk it up to his abilities, not his age. Good hitting prospects can and usually do succeed at 22 in AA. There are ups and downs that go with it, but with Colvin there’s been a whole lot more down then there’s been up.
If he struggles, you can chalk it up to his abilities, not his age.
113. BellwetherMeltdown — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:40 AM
Career 980 OPS with 525 HR and 1500+ walks, yeah, I’d say so.
Edit: that’s Thome
a Nick Hundley is batting for the Padres. Related?
114. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:40 AM
Seriously MD. I’ve always been totally respectful at your place. I don’t think it’s a ton to ask to just respect someone’s opinion if they disagree.
Fair enough. My apologies. Your first comment struck me the wrong way and I responded after that.
Edit to comment number 11: 21 in the Southern League who are younger than Colvin. There are 2 other AA leagues so there are probably less than 70 who are younger than him. He is very much young for his level. He’s got time and there’s no reason in writing off a 22 year old. if he was in Low A, I’d probably be on your side, but he’s already in AA so he definitely has value.
115. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:48 AM
Again, age isn’t the reason I’m writing off Colvin. I’m not saying there’s no time for him. You and I and Tyger are in total agreement on that much. There’s no rush.
What concerns me is the performance. The only times Colvin has ever produced it has been by way largely empty batting averages. Until this season he’s shown little power and no plate discipline. He’s walking more now, but he’s not hitting at all. Couple all that with the fact that LF is REPORTEDLY his most likely position, I don’t think that highly of him.
I understand where you’re coming from MD. I never said you or Tyger were crazy and I didn’t get all pissy about it either. I was just disagreeing is all.
116. Harry Pavlidis — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:48 AM
Cards get leadoff man on in 8th (down 3-2), but sac bunt turns into fielders choice. 1 on, 1 out.
118. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:54 AM
At 22 years old, considering he’s a college trained hitter, it makes perfect sense that he’s in AA. If he struggles, you can chalk it up to his abilities, not his age. Good hitting prospects can and usually do succeed at 22 in AA.
These are the comments I just disagree with. Take a look at the short-season leagues and Low A leagues right now after the draft. 80 or 90% of the college draft picks are in one of those 2 levels with the remaining being in rookie league and a select few in High A.
You’re making a statement more based on opinion than actual fact. And I refuse to look for a difference between “prospect” and not prospect because it’s irrelevant. If i wanted, jack, i could take all major leaguers and create a group where the average age is 20. What’s the point in doing that? this “prospect” and “not a prospect” argument bothers me.
I can tell you for a fact that not one person in an organization uses “not a prospect” as a way of differentiating between those they expect to perform better and those they expect to be minor league fillers. That’s a phrase that the keith Law’s and kevin Goldstein’s talk about and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so. it’s a statement made to make themselves look smart and all it does in my opinion is make them look silly.
All players at AA are potential roster fillers on the big league club. That’s why they are there. Not far away from the big leagues. We could create a system where we only call the 5 best players in all of the minor leagues prospects, but a prospect is any player that has a chance, at a young age, to fill a spot on the major league roster. Some have more potential than others obviously, but nobody can take a group of players and start eliminating names because they feel they are “not a prospect.” What you are ignoring is that this is not a science.
If you’ve ever talked with a scout the word you’ll hear the most is projectable or projectability. Scouts are paid good money because they are more apt to spot talent than others and are more capable of spotting when someone has “turned a corner” or when someone might become an impact bat.
the simple fact that prospects fail is enough evidence for you to hopefully realize that this is not scientific. Some players who don’t post great numbers turn out to be solid players while those who did post great numbers turn out to suck. Talking about a 22 year old as if he is “old” in any way whatsoever or that he has “no chance” is just crazy, jack.
odds are you’re right. not because you listened to keith law or read Baseball America or read some online chat over at BP. Not because you have some kind of knowledge about minor league talent that the rest of us here don’t. Not because of anything other than the simple fact that prospects fail.
Good money was on Felix Pie failing. So far he has. Good money is on Sean Gallagher failing. So far he hasn’t, but he has a long way to go. Good money is on Josh Vitters never making it to the big league. Good money was on Phil Hughes sucking and good money is on Mat Gamel sucking at the big league level.
The odds are ALWAYS against these guys regardless of how good they appeared to be in the minor leagues. In that sense, none of them are prospects by your definition.
122. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 10:59 AM
Couple all that with the fact that LF is REPORTEDLY his most likely position, I don’t think that highly of him.
I don’t know where you’re getting that, but that’s not right. Maybe right field, maybe center, but I have not once heard anyone suggest LF.
The point made early in this thread was that he had value and he undoubtedly does. It’s undeniable. for crying out loud, some teams were interested in Sam Fuld this offseason. Every single guy in the minor leagues has some value. could be a 28 year old in Low A.
And Xavier Nady is a 4th outfielder for a contending team so it’s not like we’re talking Matt Holliday here.
124. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:01 AM
I never once said Colvin was old for the Southern League. Not once. I simply don’t think based on what we’ve seen from him so far that he’s that valuable of a prospect. In almost 700 ABs in AA he’s sucked. Period. If he were a legit prospect that we could be counting on to be a valuable big leaguer, or a guy we could offer up in trades that help the big club, he’d have probably already had some success at AA. He hasn’t.
Also I’ve never claimed to be some kinda genius in terms of minor leaguers. I just throw out my opinion based on what I see.
And I dunno about your claim that Goldstein and Law “should be ashamed” for doing things they way they do. They get paid big bucks to write about ballplayers for a living because they’re good at it. Better than you or I ever will be thats for sure.
125. Harry Pavlidis — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:03 AM
I hope the Cards just got jinxed. Hairston singles, and they named Glaus Player of the Game before the nextAB
128. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:06 AM
The other thing to keep in mind is that Tyler Colvin went in the first round for one reason—- signablility. The Cubs took a guy they liked, who they knew they could sign for slot so they’d have enough to get JeF7 a few round later. According to pretty much anyone who knows anything about the draft and prospects, Colvin was probably a 3rd round talent.
The only reason I mention this is because its not like we’re talkinga bout some guy who is/was loaded with tools a la Drew Stubbs or someone like that. He was a modest talent going into the draft and he’s since put up modest numbers.
130. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:09 AM
Update to the age of Southern League hitters. I removed the pitchers and hitters with less than 100 plate appearances to get rid of, well, pitchers and those recently promoted.
Only 9 batters aged 20 or 21. And only 7 aged 22. 130 aged 23 or older. 24 and 25 were the most common age.
131. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:12 AM
Colvin was probably a 3rd round talent.
In Baseball America’s pre-draft ranking (morning of the draft), Colvin was ranked in the top 40 (32nd I think). The White Sox planned to take him with the 29th or 30th pick.
but your general point is right that he wasn’t a top 15 talent, which I honestly don’t think matters anyway.
134. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:15 AM
I’d have to see that BA pre-draft thing because all I remember hearing was that he was nowhere near anyone’s idea of a first rounder at all. I could be wrong about that but again, it was a signability thing, that was my point.
135. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:16 AM
Did STL put Izzy back in the closers role? I haven’t been paying that close of attention to them but hasn’t he been terrible this week?
138. — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:21 AM
Anyways I’m out. MD—always enjoy discussing baseball with you man. Sorry if my first comment rubbed you the wrong way. You know I enjoy hanging out here.
We’ll just agree to disagree here. Again.
Haha. It’s all in good fun. At least for me it is.
142. HORNY GOAT — Jul 20, 2008 @ 11:26 AM
cardinals were giving them the 2nd out and they needlessly throw it away
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1. Maddog — Jul 20, 2008 @ 08:50 AM
Thanks a lot for posting this, Bell. Appreciate it.