As mentioned earlier, Carlos Zambrano has some kind of pain in his arm and will see a doctor today. We don’t know for sure where the pain is and it’s really not important to what I’m going to briefly say here anyway. First of all, losing Zambrano is without a doubt bad news, but more so for him than it is for the team. For the purpose of this piece I’m assuming Zambrano is done for the year, which is probably a fair assumption given that this is his 2nd arm injury of the 2008 season.
Lou has said that Sean Marshall will replace Zambrano in the rotation if needed. What’s the difference between Marshall and Zambrano? Well, over the course of 4 starts, not much at all. That’s why this isn’t that big of a deal for the team. I’m not saying it doesn’t make it more difficult. As I already said, it’s definitely bad news, but not only are the Cubs going to the playoffs, they’re almost certainly going to finish with the best record in
the National League regardless of who takes Zambrano’s spot in the rotation.
We’ll look at their projections first and then their actual 2008 numbers to get an idea of the differences between the two in terms of what kind of impact this will have on the team. Marcels projected Zambrano to post a 3.69 ERA in 2008 and it projected a 4.54 ERA for Sean Marshall. That’s an expected winning percentage of .571 for Zambrano and .473 for Marshall. We’re talking about 4 starts the rest of the season, 6 innings per start, or 24 total innings. Converting the expected winning percentages into Wins Above Replacement, Zambrano was expected to add 0.536 WAR in those 24 innings while Sean Marshall is expected to add 0.275 WAR. That’s only a difference of 0.261 wins. Not even half a win the rest of the way.
Zambrano’s 2008 numbers are far more reliable than Sean Marshall’s in that he’s pitched significantly more innings, but let’s assume for the moment that each pitcher would have pitched the same down the stretch as they have so far this year. That’s a 4.03 ERA for Marshall and a 3.58 ERA for Zambrano. A lot of Marshall’s innings are in relief, which is easier to do than start, but I’m not going to bother with any adjustments. Converting the ERA into expected winning percentage you get 0.585 for Zambrano and 0.530 for Marshall. 24 innings the rest of the way (same as above), that’s 0.573 WAR for Zambrano and 0.427 for Marshall. Not even a quarter of a win the rest of the way.
As odd as it sounds, this is as good a time for this kind of injury as there is. There is almost no long-term impact here so the overall loss will be minimized by the fact that we only have 20-some games left. It’s just not that big of a deal. You could put Ryan Theriot in the rotation for Zambrano and you probably aren’t losing one more game than you normally would have. Actually, with the improvement on defense at shortstop were he to pitch, you might not lose anything at all. I’m joking about that of course.
The impact in the playoffs, 3-5 starts, will be about the same as it is the rest of the way. Not much at all. The fact is that playoff teams have a relatively similar chance of winning it all once they get in the playoffs. Losing Zambrano affects those chances for the Cubs, but only by a very little. If anyone thought the Cubs were going to run away in the playoffs and go something like 11-4, well, they’ll still go 11-4, perhaps 11-5. That’s it. As I said, this really couldn’t have happened at a better time. It will have almost no impact whatsoever over the next 1-2 months. Maybe, MAYBE, it will cause the team to lose one more game than they normally would have.
The only concern I have is this: when will all the Dusty Baker is to blame for this begin? Has it already? If not, it soon will.
[UPDATE] By the way, if you used a more advanced metric than ERA here, say, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), Zambrano’s FIP in 2007 and 2008 are 4.55 and 4.21. Marshall’s is 4.57 and 4.53. Zambrano’s X-FIP (Expected FIP) in 2007 and 2008 is 4.65 and 4.68. Marshall’s is 4.56 and 4.22. So if we switched from ERA to a more indicative measure of future success, the difference is even less, and perhaps non-existent.
1. — Sep 03, 2008 @ 06:18 AM
Personally, i’d rather have him get hurt in a year like 2005, when the Cubs were completely out of it. If he can rest and recover in time for the playoffs with a 15-day DL stint, that would be fine. But i think this team stands a significantly better chance of winning the WS with him in the rotation than with him out of it, especially given Z’s tendency to perform well in big games, and given the difference in the types of pitcher Z and Lilly are (hard-thrower made for Oct. vs. curveball guy).
I don’t think this is a little deal by any stretch of the imagination. 1 loss or a half a loss or a tenth of a loss or whatever doesn’t mean much in the regular season… but it can mean a hell of a lot in a 5-game or 7-game series.
And there’s another issue here, as well. Harden is saying he isn’t hurt, despite having his start pushed back a few days (which is how all this started with Z). I’m beginning to have nightmares of 2005.