I think you’ve got two options with Lee, at this point. One, put him in the two-hole, which, given these lines might seem like a good option—except for the alarming number of double plays he hits into. Which leaves option number 2: hit him 6th. Let him be the guy to turn over the batting order, not Derosa or Reed.

I’ve been intending to write about this for awhile now, but I haven’t had the time so I’ll add the relevant parts here. 

I’ve always believed that the 2nd spot in the lineup hit into the most DPs, but it’s actually the spot that Lee is currently hitting (3rd).  Let’s take a step back first. 

This discussion is only relevant if we believe Lee is going to continue to hit into a lot of double plays.  It’s even more relevant if his power stroke is gone.  I don’t think any of us know for sure, but let’s consider that Lee’s speed will only decline, his power will only decline, and his ability to cover the outside part of the plate will also only decline.  All of this leads me to believe that what we see with Lee is what you’re going to get in the future. 

I actually have the book (The Book) with me so I can add some numbers from the research that Tango, MGL and Lichtman did in that book.  If any of you have, check out page 142 (Table 59):  Number of DP Situations, By Batting Order, Relative to League.  If you don’t have the book, go get it! 

Focusing only on the NL for obvious reasons, below are the GIDP averages per batting spot PER GAME (0 is average).

1:  -0.28
2:  0.06
3:  0.19
4:  0.10
5:  0.04
6:  0.04
7:  -0.01
8:  -0.06
9:  -0.09

If Lee were to move up to 2nd, he would see 0.13 DP situations fewer per game and if he moved to 5th it would drop by 0.15.  Same with the 6th spot as pmayo mentioned as an option. 

In the 3 spot the average DP situations is 1.02 per game and in the 5 spot it’s 0.87.  Ok, to simplify things here since I don’t have much time, I’ll just give you the runs you save by moving Lee to the 5th spot where fewer DP situations exist.  only 0.57 runs over 162 games.

DLee’s DPs really suck, but they’re not actually that costly.  They’re actually more annoying than they are costly.  However, you could save over 5.9 double plays if you moved Lee up to the leadoff spot.  That’s saving 2.08 runs. 

As pointed out in The Book, 2 runs is huge when it comes to lineup optimization.  Since Lee’s power is apparently gone, I’m starting to favor him for the leadoff spot with Soriano down in the 3-spot followed by Ramirez and Soto (DeRosa 5th when Blanco starts).

I got this email, presumably as a response or follow-up to pmayo’s recent piece:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

DATE: September 5, 2008
CONTACT: Howard W. Rosenberg, (703) 841-9523

ADVISORY: There’s a May 2008 article available on the subject on the McClatchy-Tribune wire, from this past May; see http://www.standard.net/live/sports/133033/.

SUMMARY: September 6, 2008, is the 100th anniversary of a one-of-a-kind day in the annals of baseball racism; and while the two most notable names involved are not particularly recognizable today, one is the major leaguer most often blamed today for the drawing of the color line in pro ball in the 1880s; the other would be the future founder of the first of the Negro Leagues, for the 1920 season.

TEXT:

Even casual Chicago baseball fans may know that 1908 is when the Cubs last won the World Series.  But when it comes to the history of racism in baseball, hardly anyone knows about the one-of-a-kind moment that took place in Chicago on September 6, 1908.

On that date, Adrian “Cap” Anson, the then-former Chicago National League star who today is sometimes blamed for the drawing of the sport’s color line in the 1880s – at the professional level—played with his Chicago semi-pro team in a game against Rube Foster, the then-manager and star pitcher of the Leland Giants, an all-black team in the same league.

The game ended as a 13-inning tie, with Anson and Foster as the opposing first basemen throughout.  The box score of the game is arguably one of the ten most interesting in all of baseball history; that’s because for the 1920 season, Foster would found the first of the Negro Leagues.

According to Cap Anson biographer Howard W. Rosenberg, Anson, with his Chicago semipro team Anson’s Colts, had played for the first time against another all-black semipro team in his league, the Leland Giants, on August 22, 1908.  However, the September 6 game is arguably more symbolic.

The September 6 game was played on the home field of the Leland Giants:
Auburn Park, around West 77th Street.  The August 22 game was played on Anson’s field (where Anson claimed to have built the first grandstand made at least partly of steel, in the city’s history): 63rd Street and South Saint Lawrence Avenue, near the site of the 1893 World’s Fair.

Anson, who was the lone big leaguer to reach 3,000 hits before the start of the 20th century, played from 1871 to 1897, the last 22 of which with Chicago of the National League.  Anson would die in 1922, two years after the founding of the first Negro League.

In a year 2000 article on the golden age of Chicago semi-pro baseball,
1906 to 1910, baseball historian Raymond Schmidt wrote, “Semiprofessional baseball provided much of the entertainment for the sports fans of the city prior to World War I.  The semipro teams associated with particular sections of the city represented big-time baseball for most Chicago fans in this era, and the years of semiprofessional baseball prior to World War I represent the true Golden Era of the diamond sport in Chicago.  From
1906 to 1910, semipro baseball flourished in the city as never before or since. . . In addition, barriers between different types of teams had not yet solidified: major league and minor league teams from organized baseball sometimes played the semipros, and black teams regularly played white teams.”  The article appeared in the Winter 2000 edition of Chicago History, a publication of the Chicago Historical Society.

On the Internet, a narrative by Schmidt, putting semi-pro ball in the context of the city’s baseball history, can be readily accessed at the following link: http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/114.html

-30-

Dee Lee hit 8 homers in April and 5 in May, which projects to 39 a year. I gotta think there was some injury (back?) in June or July that is still hurting him.  (In fact, Lou mentioned this a few weeks ago, but it hasn’t been brought up since). Doesn’t seem like the normal effects of aging would kick in all of a sudden like that. But it also doesn’t seem like there is an end in sight, and apparently rest isn’t going to help or else they would have tried (more of) it.