The 2009 Bill James Handbook is now out and, as always, projections for most of the players are included.  2 of the projection systems have already been released:  ZIPS and CAIRO.  For the Bill James projections I’m only going to list the rate stats (avg, obp, slg) for hitters and for pitchers I’m going to list the strikeout to walk ratio, baserunners per 9 innings and ERA. 

Cubs hitters

Geovany Soto:  .293/.370/.499
Derrek Lee:  .291/.376/.492
Mark DeRosa:  .273/.354/.430
Aramis Ramirez:  .291/.364/.524
Ryan Theriot:  .293/.366/.362
Alfonso Soriano:  .278/.332/.519
Kosuke Fukudome:  .274/.363/.439
Reed Johnson:  .276/.339/.396
Mike Fontenot:  .288/.363/.447
Felix Pie:  .275/.323/.434
Micah Hoffpauir:  did not do one

Cubs free agent hitters

Henry Blanco:  .227/.273/.343
Daryle Ward:  .250/.327/.415

Cubs starting pitchers (at this point)

Carlos Zambrano:  1.87 k/bb, 12.1 br/9, 3.56 era
Ted Lilly:  2.35, 11.9, 3.95
Rich Harden:  2.47, 10.8, 3.02
Jason Marquis:  1.44, 13.4, 4.60
Sean Marshall:  1.84, 12.6, 4.14

Cubs free agent starters

Ryan Dempster:  1.84, 12.9, 3.89
Jon Lieber:  did not do one

Cubs relievers

Neal Cotts:  1.85, 13.5, 4.50
Chad Gaudin:  1.82, 13.1, 4.19
Angel Guzman:  did not do one
Kevin Hart:  did not do one
Carlos Marmol:  2.11, 12.2, 3.55
Jeff Samardzija:  did not do one
Michael Wuertz:  2.36, 11.8, 3.58

Cubs free agent relievers

Chad Fox:  did not do one
Bob Howry:  3.25, 11.4, 3.72
Kerry Wood:  2.64, 11.7, 3.51

And, of course, Jake Peavy:  3.11, 10.9, 3.26

Peavy’s projections are for San Diego.  Were the Cubs to get him and he pitched half his games at Wrigley that ERA would rise up to around 3.40 or so.  That’s about a half run less per 9 innings than Ryan Dempster.  It now appears that it’s one or the other (Peavy or Dempster) so the difference is important to consider.  If they were to throw 220 innings that means that Dempster would allow about 12 more runs than Peavy.  That’s about a win.

But let’s even consider the 4.14 ERA projected for Marshall for a minute.  Marshall would allow about .75 more runs per 9 than Peavy, which is equal to 18 additional runs.  About a win and a half. 

If we were to include other projections the difference is likely to be about 1 run per 9 innings and closer to a 2 win difference between Marshall and Peavy.  Each come with their own issues.  Both have had a history of injuries and Marshall probably can’t throw 220 innings even if you wanted him to.  Peavy probably can’t either. 

The Cubs would be better off re-signing Dempster.  Even if they have to do it at a rate which they don’t want to pay.  If you do that, you still have Sean Marshall around who is a quality starting pitcher.  Ideally he would take Marquis’ spot in the rotation if the Cubs could trade Marquis, but Marshall could be used in a trade to get someone else. 

As much as I’d like to see Jake Peavy on the Cubs, I think there are better ways to use the talent the Cubs would have to send San Diego.