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People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett

Cubs close to re-signing Dempster

Posted by MB21 on 11/18/08 at 10:41 AM • 51 Comments

[UPDATE @ 12:15 PM]  The Chicago Sun-Times reports that the deal is done.  Gordon Whittenmyer says the deal is for 4 years and AT LEAST $52 million. 

The Cubs have reached agreement on a multiyear contract with free agent pitcher Ryan Dempster, and the two-time All-Star is expected to sign the deal today, according to multiple sources.

It’s expected to be a four-year deal worth at least $52 million.

As Colin Wyers pointed out in the comments here, $52 million is a pretty good contract for the Cubs. 

Here’s where it gets tricky. If Demp is 3 WAR in 2009, then 2.5 WAR at $5.32 is $13 mil.

So, running it down, roughly:

$16
$13
$12
$10

Or $51 million. So I was a little off - it’s probably a fair-rate deal (which is still a discount, because teams overpay for pitching wins).

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs are closing in on re-signing Dempster to 4 years and about $50 million. 

The Cubs, moving to address one of their off-season priorities, are close to re-signing free-agent right-hander Ryan Dempster to a four- year contract, according to major-league sources.

Rosenthal adds that signing Dempster does not make the Cubs less likely to pursue Jake Peavy or Randy Johnson.

The deal will be worth slightly more than $50 million, sources said.

The return of Dempster would not necessarily make the Cubs less likely to trade for Padres right-hander Jake Peavy, sign free-agent lefty Randy Johnson or pursue any other player.

Rosenthal also says that Zell intends to have the Cubs sold before Christmas.

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1. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:03 PM

Replacing Marquis with Johnson is a less cost effective upgrade than replacing Theriot with Furcal, and I’m willing to bet that it would net us less wins as well… but i didnt look it up

I’m sure MD or Colin could run the numbers. I’d be interested to see how it works out.

I think people would be amazed at just how much Marquis sucks. It’s something worth looking at.

Off the cuff: Theriot would be -7 on defense and -8 on offense. (That’s relative to average, position for defense and league for offense - doing a full WAR I’d do some other adjustments, but since I’m just comparing him to Furcal - another shortstop - I can live with it.) Furcal is +2 on defense and 0 on offense. So that’s about +17 runs for Furcal or roughly 1.5 wins. Not bad.

As for Marquis/Johnson, I’ll try to get around to that.

2. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:08 PM

Steinbrenner isn’t going to be paying the Rays any money when he doesn’t have some say over who owns another team.  Steinbrenner isn’t going to pay an amateur player some supposed slot money when he has no say over what other owners do.  Steinbrenner isn’t even going to draft players, but sign them as 16 and 17 year olds.

These items are covered by the collective bargaining agreement.  The regulation concerning the sale of clubs is not.  Therefore, if the court ruled that MLB could not block the sale, it would have no effect on these items.

3. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:13 PM

These items are covered by the collective bargaining agreement.  The regulation concerning the sale of clubs is not.  Therefore, if the court ruled that MLB could not block the sale, it would have no effect on these items.

Thanks, gw.  I did not know that.  What’s your take here?  Do Cuban or Zell have any standing if Cuban can’t get approved?

4. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:17 PM

So, Colin, I saw your comment in the chat box over at GROTA saying Dempster was worth about $15 million per season.  You really think it’s that much?  I was thinking closer to $13 million.

5. Jame Gumb ® (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:26 PM

So I found where you linked to Creeping Death and now I see I need a username and password to download it?

6. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:28 PM

If you use BP’s STUFF stat(defined as A rough indicator of the pitcher’s overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. “10” is league average, while “0” is roughly replacement level.) to compare Johnson and Marquis it’s not even close.  Johson had a 27 score compared to Marquis’s 2 last year.  2007 was evenworse. Johnson at 48 and Marquis at 5.

Not sure on WARP but my guess is that Johnson provides somewhere close to 2-3 wins more than Marquis.  Adding Furcal over THeriot the club is 3.5 - 4.5 wins better.

7. J (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:34 PM

Damn, I was hoping Hendry would let Dempster walk.

8. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:42 PM

For next season I’m using ZiPS’ projected ERA and 200 IP, which gives me 3.22 WAR. At $4.84 per WAR on the free agent market (est.) that’s $16 million. Teams tend to pay a premium for pitching WAR, but I don’t treat them any differently. You have to factor in aging and inflation, though. I think $15 per season is in the ballpark.

9. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:44 PM

Aging is .5 less WAR per season, right?  Inflation is 10% increase?  It was $4.4 million in 2008 so 10% increase would be $4.84 million in 2009.  Is that right?

10. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:45 PM

Damn, I was hoping Hendry would let Dempster walk.

If this rate is correct, I’m pretty happy.

11. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:52 PM

Dan Graziano out in NY says the deal is done but unannounced.  4/52.
Not too shabby all things considered.

12. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:53 PM

Right, $4.84 per WAR in 2009.

Here’s where it gets tricky. If Demp is 3 WAR in 2009, then 2.5 WAR at $5.32 is $13 mil.

So, running it down, roughly:

$16
$13
$12
$10

Or $51 million. So I was a little off - it’s probably a fair-rate deal (which is still a discount, because teams overpay for pitching wins).

13. J (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:55 PM

If this rate is correct, I’m pretty happy.

I’d still prefer Derek Lowe.

14. J (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:56 PM

But I do like hearing this:

“The Cubs also could be involved in talks with Los Angeles Dodgers free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal, a top-of-the-order hitter they came close to signing the last time he was a free agent.”

15. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:57 PM

I’m not the most optimistic fan but it’s really surprising how many fans on BCB and NSBB forget the Cubs just won 97 games. 

Someone actually said they’d rather have Burnett at 5/80 over Dempster at 4/52.  That’s just stupid.

16. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 12:58 PM

I’d still prefer Derek Lowe.

Dempster is signing at below-market value for the Cubs, for a pretty equitable contract. If he’s willing to do that, and you don’t know that Lowe will (and really have no reason to think that Lowe would prefer to pitch for you) then you sign Dempster. when you have the chance.

17. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:00 PM

If he’s willing to do that, and you don’t know that Lowe will (and really have no reason to think that Lowe would prefer to pitch for you) then you sign Dempster. when you have the chance.

If Dempster’s deal won’t stop them from going after Peavy why should it from signing Lowe?

18. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:00 PM

I know alot of you are in favor of signing Randy Jognson, but what does Marshall have to do to get a spot in the rotation? We let Wood go to save money, but Marshall instead of Johnson in the rotation would save just as much, which could go to Ibanez or Furcal.

Johnson is 45, herniated disk surgery (3 times), sucked pitching in cold weather NYC because of his back and is a dickhead.

19. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:17 PM

Johnson is 45, herniated disk surgery (3 times), sucked pitching in cold weather NYC because of his back and is a dickhead.

He’s certainly an injury risk, but he’s made 30 starts or more in 4 of the last 5 years.  I don’t think there’s any reason to think he won’t make about 25 or so starts.  I don’t care if he’s a dickhead.

20. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:20 PM

cold weather NYC because of his back

it’s not like they don’t have summers there either.  He pitched very well his first year in NY and wasn’t so great in year 2.

21. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:21 PM

The American League is also a much, much tougher league.

22. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:22 PM

Do the Cubs now move on to something other than pitching?  I’d like to see them acquire one of Peavy or Johnson (Johnson would be a lot easier), but I’d still like to see Furcal and a right fielder, preferably Giles added to the team.

23. Jame Gumb ® (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:23 PM

I don’t care if he’s a dickhead.

I do. If he’s a dickhead, most Cubs fans won’t want him…which means I would.

24. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:25 PM

I do. If he’s a dickhead, most Cubs fans won’t want him…which means I would.

Good point.  This also means you’re finally on board for Bonds, right?

25. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:40 PM

Anyone think that Milton Bradley would be a good fit? I know he would fit nicely in the lineup, but what about RF?

26. kid_gloves (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:44 PM

Awesome fit, and he is a generally good defender as well.  The problem is will his health hold up well enough to make his salary (which should be fairly high) worth it.

27. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:44 PM

I like Bradley and think the Cubs would be wise to look into him.  I’d rather have him than Abreu or Ibanez.

28. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:46 PM

What’s your take here?  Do Cuban or Zell have any standing if Cuban can’t get approved?

I also have a limited understanding, but I think they do.  If the court agrees with the Florida Supreme Court or the US District’s interpretation, the anti-trust exemption does not apply here.  This just means MLB would need to provide some other rationale for blocking the contract (other than: because we can).  I agree with you that MLB is probably worried about salaries going up, but I can’t see how the court would accept that as rationale.  Under the collective bargaining agreement, individual owners are perfectly justified in driving up the cost of labor.  Also, the MLBPA would go nuts if this came out.

Thats why I agree with you that the timing of these insider trading allegations is suspicious.

Also, as you mentioned, Zell may not be willing to go through with the lawsuit, because of his other obligations, etc…  I suspect there are a lot of details there that we are ignorant of, which would make this difficult to predict.

The big question to me is how much is he really going to get in the midst of the credit crunch?  If its only half of what was predicted, every dollar is that much more important.

29. Jame Gumb ® (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:51 PM

This also means you’re finally on board for Bonds, right?

I’ve always been. I’ve always hated him, but he’s a great player.

30. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:54 PM

I like Bradley and think the Cubs would be wise to look into him.  I’d rather have him than Abreu or Ibanez.

I agree.

31. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:56 PM

Thats why I agree with you that the timing of these insider trading allegations is suspicious.

it gives the owners a reason why they won’t approve him for sure.  Any question of whether or not the owners could come up with a reason why they don’t want Cuban as an owner has been supplied.  You can’t blame an owner or owners for not approving of a potential owner who is being accuse of insider trading.  It’s only a civil matter at this point, but it could be criminal. 

I imagine that’s the owner’s excuse for why they won’t approve him and at that point there would be nothing that Cuban or Zell could, I wouldn’t think.  It’s most certainly a valid reason to not approve him.  Whether or not the charges and accusations are valid is another matter, but the fact it’s an issue is an excuse. 

Well done by Selig.

32. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:57 PM

I’ve always hated him, but he’s a great player and therefore not worthy of the MVP awards that he won.

Fixed.

33. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:58 PM

Bradley would actually be a good move due to the depth the Cubs have at 2B/RF. On days when he needs rest (figure 2 to 3 a week, maybe), DeRosa slides to RF and Fontenot covers 2B.

34. kid_gloves (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:58 PM

I like Bradley and think the Cubs would be wise to look into him.  I’d rather have him than Abreu or Ibanez.

I agree.

I’d rather have a great bat/good defense/iffy health over good bad/terrible defense/good health.

35. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:59 PM

I like Bradley and think the Cubs would be wise to look into him.  I’d rather have him than Abreu or Ibanez.

If he could stay healthy I’d be all about Bradley.  the problem is that this guy practically DH’d the entire year and still wasn’t healthy.

36. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:59 PM

With Dempster re-signed (Harden, Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis/Marshall), I’d rather have the Cubs go for Furcal (then platoon the Cajuns), then trade Marquis, then go for Johnson, then a RF. If you don’t get a RF, you have DeRosa. If you do get the RF, DeRosa is superutility.

37. Jame Gumb ® (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 01:59 PM

I’ve always hated him, so I’m taking a wait-and-see approach to decide if he’s worthy of the MVP awards that he won.

Fixed.

38. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:00 PM

yeah, i think the Cubs have the depth to get Bradley and not worry too much about his health.

39. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:00 PM

it gives the owners a reason why they won’t approve him for sure.  Any question of whether or not the owners could come up with a reason why they don’t want Cuban as an owner has been supplied.  You can’t blame an owner or owners for not approving of a potential owner who is being accuse of insider trading.  It’s only a civil matter at this point, but it could be criminal.

I imagine that’s the owner’s excuse for why they won’t approve him and at that point there would be nothing that Cuban or Zell could, I wouldn’t think.  It’s most certainly a valid reason to not approve him.  Whether or not the charges and accusations are valid is another matter, but the fact it’s an issue is an excuse.

Well done by Selig.

Innocent until proven guilty and if they don’t get anything to stick why should it change anything on his purchasing front. MLB owners piss me off beyond explanation this country club group shit needs to stop. It be like your homeowners group telling you that you can’t buy a black car only red and blue is allowed.

41. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:03 PM

  I’ve always hated him, so I’m taking a wait-and-see approach to see if he can prove me wrong about whether or not he was worth of MVP awards that he won.

Fixed.

42. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:04 PM

I agree, Cone, but it’s a valid excuse.  Innocent until proven guilty or not, when a potential owner is in the news because of insider trading, or any crime for that matter, it’s reason enough to make other owners hesitant.

It’s the perfect excuse.

43. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:07 PM

Bradley would actually be a good move due to the depth the Cubs have at 2B/RF. On days when he needs rest (figure 2 to 3 a week, maybe), DeRosa slides to RF and Fontenot covers 2B.

yeah i guess that depth does help quite a bit.  Financially speaking Bradley probably comes pretty cheap as compared to all others.  Might be able to get a smaller per-year salary if the cubs were to go more years.  3/24 perhaps.  It’s a gamble but probably something that works out to the benefit of the Cubs especially because they could still afford to bring aboard Furcal.

44. Jame Gumb ® (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:08 PM

  I’ve always hated him, so I’m taking a wait-and-see approach to see if he can prove me wrong about whether or not he was worth of MVP awards that he won or if it’ll shut him right up.

Fixed.

45. Jame Gumb ® (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:10 PM

Bobby Abreu: It would be nice for the Yankees if he accepted arbitration and came back for a year. But he makes too much sense for the Cubs. They need a lefty hitter and a right fielder. Prediction: Cubs for three years and $44 million.
—Some fat-ass New Yorker

46. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:15 PM

I’ve always hated him for not savoring every moment, so I’m taking a wait-and-see approach to see if he can prove me wrong about whether or not he was worth of MVP awards that he won or if it’ll shut him right up.

Fixed.

47. kid_gloves (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:15 PM

Abreu’s defense is bad, and his head is gigantic.  That wasnt a knock on his ego, his head is literally huge and it frightens me.

48. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:18 PM

I’m not seeing why the Cubs would be in on Peavy now. Sign Johnson if you absolutely have to have another SP, and if not (Marshall and/or Marquis should be more than adequate #5 guys) just move on to filling SS, RF and finish the offseason. Whatever players the Padres are wanting for Peavy you’re likely gonna need for pitching depth once Harden and possibly Zambrano goes down for a length of time anyway, and not to belabor the obvious, but with Peavy set to see a sizeable uptick in salary coupled with a retrograde in production (not to mention his injury history as well) it seems these players and money can be better spent or utilized in other places.

49. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:19 PM

Pedroia was named the AL MVP.

50. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:28 PM

new thread up

51. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 18, 2008 @ 02:31 PM

Abreu’s defense is bad, and his head is gigantic.  That wasnt a knock on his ego, his head is literally huge and it frightens me.

That’s an element that this club has been missing since Hee Seop Choi got dumped.

I’d consider either Bradley or Abreu a solid pickup for the team.  Joe Sheehan (yeah, yeah, shoot me) did a piece on the latter the other day and brought up at least one good point: the NL Central will be an easier place for him to hit than the AL East was.

The devil’s in the details, though.  I suspect Milt has a lower price tag, and it’s looking like that will matter.

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