I’d still try to trade for Peavy and also sign Johnson. See if SD will take on Marquis’s contract, or at least part of it, given that the Cubs would be taking on Peavy’s.

On a hopeful note, think about all the fans Hendry probably pissed off by not re-signing Wood (myself included, on a sentimental level). Knowing that business has changed with the franchise makes me even more hopeful/optimistic that Hendry signs Johnson.

RJ is a huge improvement over Marquis, even a fuckhead like Sullivan can see it.

RJ is a huge improvement over Marquis, even a fuckhead like Sullivan can see it.

Exactly, J.  Not only is Johnson an improvement over Marquis, he’d probably be the team’s 2nd best starter in 2009 behind Harden.

id be willing to part with theriot for a difference maker

Ryno has been right all along.  NSBB is the greatest place on the internet.

Linear weights projection for 2009….

Kerry Wood:  4.21 ERA
“slightly above average reliever”:  4.26 ERA

Cubs saved millions of dollars.  it was the right thing to do.  Especially when you got someone almost as good for half the price.

Jack you’re still assuming that Wood would be the same as he was last year, in terms of both performance and health, and that’s not very realistic. As many have already said Gregg won’t be as good Wood was last year, but neither will Wood. You have a better reliever making pennies in Marmol to take over and as far as the rest of the pen goes, if things were that precarious to begin with, why give Wood 10-12MM, even for one year, when he’s such a perpetual injury risk (he still has a tear in his shoulder for chrissake) and a good bet to regress, leaving the overall team in worse shape than it is right now? Keep Wood, even for one year, assuming the money train stops at 150MM, and that doesn’t leave the Cubs much room to address RF and SP. Teams can survive shaky bullpens and there are many more ways to address shaky bullpens during the season than there are starting pitching or LH bats.

And the entire reason the Cubs are letting Wood go is because of the money it frees up for them to pursue other avenues. Bullpens are crapshoots. You avoid spending a bunch of money on it whenever possible. And as far as Ceda goes, yes, it’s a risk, but not as steep of one as you make it sound (and you’re assuming the Cubs ran up breathlessly to the Fish and begged them to take Ceda for Gregg, likely, that was not the case). There are plenty of questions surrounding Ceda, in terms of control and weight issues and while there’s a chance he becomes as some scouts have said, Lee Smith or Armando Benitez, there’s a better chance he doesn’t get much past being an Antonio Alfonseca. He’s a reliever, which means he’ll never be good enough to start, which puts him in a much more volatile category of pitcher.

Bottom line, it’s never a terrible thing to trade a reliever, nor let one go.

Bottom line, it’s never a terrible thing to trade a reliever, nor let one go.

Very true.  What I’m about to say may surprise some, but I’d shop Carlos Marmol this offseason as well.  you’ll never get more for him than you can now.  I’m just not that worried about the bullpen.  The Cubs went into 2008 thinking they had a good bullpen and it was below average.  It may be in 2009 as well or it may be really good.  Nobody knows.

(dying laughing), some guy over on the chat box at GROTA said Johnson was about the same as Marquis.  What the fuck is wrong with Cubs fans?  Why do they refuse to look at the FACTS?  Fucking ridiculous.

I’m not saying they’re the same, just that I’d be happy to slot him into a 5th starter spot. Johnson is >> Marquis, but Johnson is 45 and has a recent history of back problems, so who knows how much of him we would actually get. We already have a big helping of risk in our rotation in Harden.

I’m not saying they’re the same, just that I’d be happy to slot him into a 5th starter spot. Johnson is >> Marquis, but Johnson is 45 and has a recent history of back problems, so who knows how much of him we would actually get. We already have a big helping of risk in our rotation in Harden.

Fair enough.  I think the risk for Johnson is less than it is for Peavy or Dempster simply because of money and years, but I get what you’re saying.

The bottom line is, unless Hendry and Co. get creative and make a splash with the money they’ll save by letting Wood walk

You don’t have to get creative to add wins to a team.  Kerry Wood is, at the most, 1 win better than Kevin Gregg so all the Cubs have to do to improve is add about 1.1 wins.  Say, Randy Johnson!  Not that creative.

If there was a deal done, it would be all over the news. 

It’s like the rumor Andy Dolan posted on his site Desipio where a former MLB player told him a deal between the Cubs and Padres was “basically done”.  Maybe Dolan did hear that from a player.  I obviously have no idea.  But here’s a piece of information worth thinking about:  if an MLB player told a lowly blogger that a deal was “basically done” it does not stand to reason that the blogger would be the only person on the planet he’d tell and that sooner or later someone else would report it. 

Therefore, there are only 3 possibilities. 

1.  the person reporting the rumor is lying
2.  the person who told the guy the rumor was playing a joke
3.  the rumor is true.  It just somehow only found its way to one person on the planet and people who verify such rumors were just unable to verify because others were being mean to them.

Gosh… ya know I thought smart baseball fans were over ERA. I guess not…

Sure Kerry’s ERA was 3.26 last year. But how bout a more telling, predictive statistic such as FIP?

How does 2.32 look? All of a sudden, that puts Kerry in a pretty elite class of relievers.

Wanna know what Franky Rodriquez’ FIP was last year—when he broke the single season save record?—3.22

How about some other PREDICITIVE stats. Not ERA. Not wins. Not saves. None of that bullshit. Let’s look at some stats that actually mean something.

Wood (2008)

K/9: 11.40
BB/9: 2.44
HR/9: 0.41

Gregg (2008)

K/9: 7.60
BB/9: 4.55
HR/9: 0.39 (pitching half his games in Grand Canyon)

The numbers (at least the ones that ACTUALLY MATTER) speak for themselves. Kerry Wood wipes his ass with the Kevin Greggs of the world.

Now, there’s nothing that I, or any other Wood supporter can say to defend the injury issue. Sure there is some risk involved there. But is it really that hard to believe that post surgery, post rehab, in a role where he’s only pitching one inning per outing, rarely on consecutive days, that the guy can manage to stay healthy for the better part of a season?

I don’t think so. And when your team’s payroll figures to be in the $150M range, you can afford to have one expensive reliever. Even if he’s a high risk, high upside guy.

All I can say is that I really hope that we’re not done tinkering with our bullpen, because if we are I won’t be surprised to see it become our Achilles Heel for 2009.

And—Kerry wanted to stay. May have even done so on a ONE-YEAR DEAL.

And we gave up Jose Ceda. For one year of… Kevin Gregg.

I gotta say. I’m really, really surprised to hear how pleased everyone is with this decision.

How does 2.32 look?

So you’re telling me you expect kerry Wood to not only stay healthy, but continue to perform at that level? 

You do remember that he can’t stay healthy (not even in 2008) and he’s simply not that good of a pitcher, right? 

Kevin Gregg isn’t going to replace what Kerry Wood did in 2008, but neither will Kerry Wood.

But is it really that hard to believe that post surgery, post rehab, in a role where he’s only pitching one inning per outing, rarely on consecutive days, that the guy can manage to stay healthy for the better part of a season?

Yeah it is.  The guy has a tear in his shoulder.  It’s there and it hasn’t been surgically repaired.  One day he was about ready to go in for surgery and probably call it quits to his career and he suddenly felt better.  He’s a bad night’s sleep away from needing surgery.  So, yeah, when a pitcher already has a tear in his rotator cuff it’s very hard to believe he’s going to stay healthy.

i think many of the same people upset with this are the same people who could not stand to see mark prior traded for miguel tejada. remember that? people went batshit crazy at even the thought of that.

how much better would the cubs be today if that had happened?

Do I expect Kerry to keep up his 2008 production? That’s hard to say. But I will say that I think it’s likely enough that a team with money to spend like the Cubs could have and should have taken that risk.

Do I expect Kerry to keep up his 2008 production? That’s hard to say. But I will say that I think it’s likely enough that a team with money to spend like the Cubs could have and should have taken that risk.

If this team was going to raise payroll up to $175 million I’d probably agree, but even at $150 million (and some think that’s a pipe dream), they don’t have room for Kerry Wood.  They’re already at $125 million.  If they have another $25 million to spend, i’d much rather they spend on it players that have more of an impact than a guy who will throw about 65 innings.  if you sign Wood, you sign one other player.  that’s it.  offseason over. 

So, what’s better?  Wood and let’s use Abreu as only an example.  Or Abreu and Dempster?  Or Abreu, Randy Johnson, and Brian Roberts?  Or Abreu, Jake Peavy and Randy Johnson? 

Wood and Abreu would give you maybe 4-5 wins.  Abreu and Dempster will give you 5-6.  Abreu, Johnson and Roberts would give the cubs about 8 wins or more.  Abreu, peavy and Randy Johnson about 8 wins or more. 

So there’s nothing here to think about.  Not bringing Wood back gives the Cubs the opportunity to improve the club more than they could be re-signing him.  isn’t that what we want?  I know I do.

But one of this team’s strength’s entering the postseason was the BACK end up the bullpen, something that is a HUGE factor for playoff success—something we’ve had none of the past two years.

But if it’s a HUGE factor, why have we been 0-6?  Obviously I’d rather have a good bullpen than a bad one, but I’m just not going to lose sleep over it because it’s pretty much a crapshoot.  Haven’t we learned that signing relievers is usually a bad thing?  Hawkins, Remlinger, Howry, Eyre.

Hey WV, I just saw Wedding Crashers is on.  Are you watching?  We just got the meatloaf scene.  Still funny.

MD I totally understand where you’re coming from with all this stuff, but I think we just disagree as to how important Wood is to this team.

I just don’t understand why people don’t think it’s important to build the best possible team top to bottom. I mean, you don’t have to be some baseball genius to know that having a good bullpen, especially at the back end, is critical to playoff success. Had the Cubs bats actually showed up in either of the two Octobers, our bullpen would have been a huge asset throughout a playoff run. Just because we didn’t get a chance to defend many leads doesn’t mean that it isn’t important.

I just think that if the Cubs are going to win the World Series next year, which, as a fan, is what I think you should be interested in, it will require having a better bullpen than the one we figure to enter 2009 with. I mean, think about the past 4 or 5 World Series Champs. Every one of those teams had a pretty damn good pen.

How about this: If the Cubs did go ahead and replace Jason Marquis with Randy Johnson, would anyone be somewhat concerned that Marquis is a lock for 200 innings whereas there is a little risk with Randy Johnson.

I agree with everyone here that signing Johnson would probably be a good move. He is definitely being underrated by Cub fans for some reason.

But in Zambrano and Hardem, we have a #1 #2 combo neither of which is a lock to pitch 200 innings. Can we afford to gamble on how many innings Johnson will give you?

I think it’s hard to say. It’s enticing though, because I think he’d be a solid pick up if he could stay healthy.

I just don’t understand why people don’t think it’s important to build the best possible team top to bottom.

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m saying, Jack.  I’ve been trying to say that with the limited amount of money available, signing a closer just isn’t a priority when you have someone like Marmol and the volatility of relievers in general anyway.  If the cubs were able to increase payroll up to about $175 million I’d definitely think signing Kerry Wood should be a priority, but best case scenario is $150 million and there are other priorities more important than a reliever who will almost certainly be overpaid.  The Cubs have 2 additions they can make.  2 top tiered players anyway.  I figure one is a starting pitcher and one is a right fielder.  After that I’d like to see the Cubs add a shortstop.  But that’s probably not possible.  The Cubs would only be able to add a right fielder or a starter if they added Wood.  i just don’t think you can justify spending that much money on him when you need to spend it elsewhere. 

I’d love to build the best team top to bottom and that’s always the goal, but things like bullpen and bench have to be the last things you address.  Starters (position players and starting pitchers) are simply more valuable than relievers and bench players for obvious reasons.

Looks like Furcal wants a 4-year deal and no team wants to give him that many years.  so basically the door is wide open for Hendry to sign Furcal.  Unfortunately the price per year is unknown. 

Regarding the pitching staff.  I’d be inclined to take a one-year chance that Johnson will hold up and pitch like his 2nd-half stats than over-pay for Dempster and his career year.  Hendry’s willingness to let him hit the FA market is an indication the Cubs are leary of Dempster sustaining this level of production.