Vlad Guerrero, 2008:

452 AB, 129 H, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 43 BB, 66 K, .285/.351/.493 121 OPS+

Derrek Lee, 2008:

513 AB, 149 H, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 56 BB, 90 K, .290/.358/.470 113 OPS+

So, in down year, in 61 fewer AB’s, Vlad has produced 5 more HR, 3 more RBI and struck out 24 times fewer. And all that is not to mention that Vlad plays in a tougher league, with better pitching, and plays a more demanding defensive position. Other than that, they’re exactly the same, so no one should be worried.

I prefer to make cases for players that don’t require me to weave sophistries in their defense.

I guess Lou did talk to Fukudome.

Here’s a little bit on Bergmann.
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/08/cubs-vs-nats-bergmann-fx.html

PS I feel like Harden could throw a no-hitter against a team like this.

I just don’t get batting Ward 4th.

whenever we say that, said player ends up getting a huge hit or two. I expect to type “WARD!” at least once today.

Good point Goat, hope I reverse jinxed him. On a side note, CC going today, so a win to keep a 4.5 game lead is a must.

I still cannot belive the Rays are starting to run away with the AL east, and Boston is already losing today. Bizarre.

Some of you may be worried about D-Lee’s hitting troubles, but he isn’t.

Good to know Lee isn’t worried.  Also good to know that Cubs fans support him for not being worried.  If that was Alfonso Soriano who wasn’t worried, there would be cries from Cubs fans to sentence him to death. 

You gotta love the consistency.

PS I feel like Harden could throw a no-hitter against a team like this.

I feel like that every time he takes the mound and then I remember that he should just not be allowed to throw as many pitches as it would require to go the distance.

If that was Alfonso Soriano who wasn’t worried, there would be cries from Cubs fans to sentence him to death.

No doubt.

I think someone around here should tell their boss the next time they had a really bad day that they aren’t worried about their performance.  See how that goes over.  Let me know.

Good to know Lee isn’t worried.

Remember when Fukudome wasn’t worried about his awful spring training? Maybe he should have been, (dying laughing).

See how that goes over.  Let me know.

Got a spare room?

Harden does like the cooler weather.  Seven innings isn’t out of the question for him today.

He should be throwing complete perfect games in October then.

Harden on pace for 14 K’s

Why is Theriot trying to elevate the ball? At least he’s working over Bergamnn pretty good.

This game should be a laugher. Harden looks to have his “good stuff”

Harden just clowned Belliard.

Harden tends to clown lots of people.

DeRosa is the man still for our offense

locked in!

He’s about to get Beasted on

Yep

Soto!

and Derrek Lee is watching in disbelief

Before yesterday’s game I was just telling a buddy of mine about the Cubs power outage.

I wonder if Lou has realized that Fontenot’s hot streak has come to an end.

Bergmann has lost his shit. Gotta keep this inning going as long as possible.

How are there so many home runs being hit today?  i didn’t think even one would be hit.  3 in 2.5 innings?  Crazy game.

Remember when Fukudome wasn’t worried about his awful spring training? Maybe he should have been, (dying laughing).

I forgot about that, HG.  Can you imagine if Soriano said he wasn’t worried about his hitting?  Even if he was in the middle of a 13-20 with 7 home runs stretch the criticisms for such a statement would be all over the place.

Cubs are really pounding balls in the air today. If not for the wind they would have 7-8 runs.

Bergmann is awful. Cubs should’ve hit 6 HR today

I can’t come in the chat either.  I’ll be in and out today.

This Rich Harden guy is pretty good.

TOOTBLAN!

That’s the fabled “Ghost pitch,” MD. It’s a weird pitch, and completely devastating.

That was atrocious baserunning by Edmonds.

I might be OK with Harden bumping Marquis from the playoff roster.

No way will Edmonds get called out.  No chance.

Bergmann was batting there? WTF?

I would have pinch hit too, HG, but he’s only given up 2 hits.  Both home runs fortunately for the cubs.

So I noticed you called Lee’s problem “neck spasms,” Maddog, and I also caught the pregame where Santo said Lee was out with back spasms, really the same stiff neck he’s had problems with this season.

I’m just wondering if maybe some of Lee’s subpar hitting this season since May can’t be attributed to trying to play through injury. Maybe they ought to give him fifteen days off to rest that neck.

No way will Edmonds get called out.  No chance.

that was far worse than anything Soriano has ever done on this team

Agreed to both.

Two infield pops for Ward from the 4 hole, and a flyout to center

We could have gotten that kind of production from our first baseman on a normal day.

I might be OK with Harden bumping Marquis into the Chicago River.

Fixed

Thanks, HG.  Will you be hiring the Dave Matthews Band bus driver to handle the dirty work?

Vlad, the spasms to Lee could be part of the problem.  If it’s been hurting him it’s surely been a contributing factor to his offense, but we just don’t know if it has or not. 

I agree with you that they may be smart to just put him on the shelf for 2 weeks.

Thanks, HG.  Will you be hiring the Dave Matthews Band bus driver to handle the dirty work?

that was pretty bad timing wasn’t it, I mean when they dumped their load, (dying laughing). Did anything ever come from that lawsuit?

Jim Edmonds:

Last 7 days: .000/.300/.000

Last 14 days: .095/.345/.286

Last 28 days: .191/.367/.596

pmayo, Edmonds’ last 28 days numbers don’t bother me at all, I’ll say that.

If you shelf Lee do it after the call ups so we can put someone at first who can hit

Jim Edmonds:
Last 7 days: .000/.300/.000
Last 14 days: .095/.345/.286
Last 28 days: .191/.367/.596

Unacceptable. What’s the Aubrey Huff situation again?

If you shelf Lee do it after the call ups so we can put someone at first who can hit

If you shelf Lee you can call up Hoffpauir immediately.

Len also mentioned it in the early innings.  Lou said they want to work on him shortening up his stride.  We’ll see how that goes.  Not sure why they didn’t do that sooner.

I don’t know why they didn’t do that either.  I missed the early part of the game so i didn’t get to hear Len talk about it.  He’s been needing some alone time in the cage for awhile now.

Am I the only one who finds it funy we deal for a guy with shoulder fatigue, and the guy we deal for him is now out with shoulder fatigue while the guy we dealt for is great?

Harden sucks.

I’m actually a fan of Cusack.  Some of his stuff anyway.  I haven’t seen as much as some around here have.

Am I the only one who finds it funy we deal for a guy with shoulder fatigue, and the guy we deal for him is now out with shoulder fatigue while the guy we dealt for is great?

I can deal with that

That’s what I meant by shelf, give Lee a 3-4 day stretch off after callups if we are up 6-7 games.

The Cusack thing is he is a tool personally, not professionally

Doubtful Lee would agree to go to DL.

I’ve never been clear - is it actually his choice? In his case he actually has a real injury, so it’s not like the team needs to get him to agree to gin up an injury.

we’d be hearing how Beane is a genius and took Hendry to the cleaners.

I think some people around the blogs were saying that immediately after the deal just because it’s Billy Beane.  It’s nonsense as you know.  Beane is a good GM, but he’s not Jesus Christ like some people make him out to be.

Doubtful Lee would agree to go to DL.

I doubt he would either unless he really is injured.  He probably wanted to be in the lineup today.

Lee wouldn’t technically have a choice but I don’t think Hendry or Lou would put him on the DL if he said he wanted to play through it.

Eddie Vedder, John Cusack and the 7th inning stretch were so 10 years ago…..

You can’t blame Beane for the deal though, he figured Harden could be gone at any moment to the DL.

I think the deal made a lot of sense for both teams. I don’t think Beane was dumb for trading for Gallagher just because he got hurt afterwards. (and I thought the rumor Gallagher heard a pop was that he did earlier this month when they decided to skip him for a start, not before the trade)

No idea. Is that a line from that Cub fan song he wrote?

he wrote a song about the cubs?

cut Fukudome.

Holy shit. HR Fukudome!

The Nationals suck.

is it just me or does it seem like every time Lou does something, it works?

I know it doesn’t, and I know his talk had nothing to do with that, but it’s just odd.

he wrote a song about the cubs?

Yes. It’s called “Someday We’ll Go All The Way”

Look at Aramis selfishly hustling down to first so he can pad his RBI stats.

Maddog, I checked out those pieces you posted two threads back. Its good stuff. I still think there are major differences in the actual mechanics of PECOTA and Marcel, which for what we’re doing is actually a a good thing. Hopefully, one system will be better at predicting some things and the other(s) will be good at predicting other things. That way, by combining them in a rigorous way, the ensemble model (maybe that’s the proper name for it) should be better than any individual one.

I think part of the problem with the celebrities that root for this team and come sing the stretch is that they really don’t follow the team.  At all.  Cusack said it had been a great home stand.  They’re currently 3-2.  Good, sure. Great?  No.  I doubt Cusack even knew this was the 6th game of the home stand. 

I guess I don’t have an issue with them trying to fit in with the Wrigley crowd and saying what he did, while stupid, was an attempt to do just that.  And think about the type of people they’re trying to fit in with. 

All that being said, I think most every celebrity is an incredible moron, much like I think most athletes would be best off never going near a microphone.  My favorite celebrities are the ones who offer political advice.  Good god! 

My next favorite thing was the people in the media who felt the US Men’s baseketball team should actually consider speaking up about the politics in China.  I don’t even want them speaking up about politics in the US in which I’m almost positive they know nothing about.  I can guarantee you they know nothing about politics in China.

Cusack said it had been a great home stand.

False. He said it was “magical.” Magical. MAGICAL!?!?! They’ve played well the last two days, but ye gods… magical?

I do think Cusack is a legitimate fan of the team. As we’ve often seen, that unfortunately doesn’t make him any more knowledgeable about the team.

I definitely agree that the differences in the projection systems is what makes them, as a group, more valuable than any one of them.  I just thought it was exciting to see someone working on a system that appears to be as in depth as PECOTA and will, presumably, make it available for free whereas you have to pay to get PECOTA.

My favorite celebrities are the ones who offer political advice.  Good god!

I don’t mind that - they’re just speaking their minds. What i do mind are the people that listen to the advice.

I know the people here follow the minors more than i do, and i have a question for those of you that do…

Who was the best college hitter in this year’s draft?

Marmol looks very shaky today.

Marmol looks very shaky today.

He got hit hard last time out, as well. He gave up a HR, and two line drives that were crushed right at outfielders.

c’mon Marmol!

Who was the best college hitter in this year’s draft?

I can’t think of who it was right now.  Ryno would surely know, but he’s a family man only on the weekends.

makeup call, (dying laughing)

Yup, and i wasn’t criticizing/disagreeing

that’s good because I’d hate to have to get rid of you.  (dying laughing)

Where was that pitch?

Well, that one made up for it so oh well.

As for PECOTA, I’m not as sure as you are that it’s the best system.  One reason why I’d argue it’s not is that it’s not updated during the season.  ZIPS and now Marcel release, around mid-season, tools to do just that.  I think looking at PECOTA right now just isn’t a good predictor of what someone will do, but you can use the other 2 and the tools they have and get an up to date projection. 

Secondly, you have to pay for it as you said.

i want to grab a 1st baseman to replace DLee (who’s currently starting for me).

Is Matt LaPorta still around? If not him, Gamel may be up with Milwaukee next year, depending on what happens with Fielder’s contract

Is Matt LaPorta still around? If not him, Gamel may be up with Milwaukee next year, depending on what happens with Fielder’s contract

Both are taken. The league i’m in is full of guys that are pretty in-tune with stuff like this. The reason i ask about this year’s draft is those guys were just added to the list of free agents this week.

F7 coming in. Harden, then Marmol, now F7. That’s a holy trinity of pitching filth right there. Poor Nationals.

When was the last time JefF7 pitched?

I love SmardZilla

F7 coming in. Harden, then Marmol, now F7. That’s a holy trinity of pitching filth right there. Poor Nationals.

You know what’s kind of cool about the whole Harden-Sabbathia thing? Both guys are better fits for their respective teams. The Cubs are better off with a guy that’s more dominating but pitches less innings, whereas the Brewers bullpen necessitates a horse that can throw a CG any given day.

I’m out of here in about 5 minutes.  Would one of shawn or pmayo have time to write a brief postgame?  If not, I’ll put something up later on.

I can do it. It’ll be short, but sweet.

I can do it. It’ll be short, but sweet.

I expect nothing less. 

Well, I assume the cubs will win this one and will be on my way.  Later all.

Adios, MD.

Cubs win! 30 above .500, 8 straight series wins. Wow.

80-50. Has a nice sound to it.

MIL gave up the lead as promised. 3-3 and PIT has a runner at 2nd. c’mon!