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Padres don’t see a deal happening with Cubs or Braves

Posted by MB21 on 11/13/08 at 10:10 PM • 31 Comments

Kevin Towers said he doesn’t foresee a deal with any of Jake Peavy’s preferred teams, which include the Braves and Cubs along with the Dodgers, Cardinals and Astros.

The Padres have been unable to line up a suitable trade with one of Jake Peavy’s preferred teams and now may turn to another club in an attempt to move Peavy’s four-year, $63 million guarantee.

“We’ve had advanced discussions with the Cubs and Braves, which are Jake’s priority teams,” General Manager Kevin Towers said Thursday night, “but at this point in time, I do not see a potential deal with either club.”

The Yankees and Angels could be next in line.

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1. Harry Pavlidis (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 12:09 AM

Now the Cubs and Braves battle over Dempster.

2. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 12:24 AM

Now the Cubs and Braves battle over Dempster.

Can the Cubs just take Lowe?

3. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 12:26 AM

This shit better not turn into Brian Roberts redux where the rumor simply won’t die all offseason.

Personally, I’ve gone from sweet to very sour on the whole idea of giving up what good prospects and taking on a large contract for a very good pitcher whose numbers are a bit skewed from plying his trade primarily in a pitcher’s paradise.

Go after Sheets, Lowe, or bring back Dempster and just be done with it. Move on.

4. Harry Pavlidis (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 12:40 AM

Here’s my first run at Gregg
http://www.cubsfx.com/2008/11/new-guy-fx-kevin-gregg.html

Can the Cubs just take Lowe?

Zambrano,Lowe,Dempster,Lilly,Harden

5. Harry Pavlidis (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 12:43 AM

Is Big Unit worth 8-10 mil?
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/130348

6. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 01:58 AM

I don’t think you can possibly trust Johnson to stay on the field all year.

7. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 07:40 AM

and then there is this from keith law…i agree on the 3 out thing…we lose some leverage limiting marmol to the closer spot. it was an unintentional luxury having you best relief pitcher pitching the highest leverage spots last year. generally the best reliever is the closer, not the case last year. Small chance they just make gregg a closer but losing marmol for tight spots concerns me. It also concerns me that they had had to give up a major trade chip for a guy that seemingly didn’t fit with florida. feel like that is telling of where hendry sees trade activity - if he didn’t need ceda, that’s either real good, or it will be a slow trading year.

Marlins get a steal for Gregg

Thursday, November 13, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

Getting Jose Ceda for one year of Kevin Gregg is a heist for Florida, and could really end up as a disaster for the Cubs, given how they intend to realign their pen.

The Cubs say they’re going to move Carlos Marmol into the closer role, removing him from the seventh-eighth inning role where Lou Piniella was willing to stretch him out to get more than three outs in a single appearance. It also increases the chance that Marmol will be wasted in save situations where the Cubs have a three-run lead (that is, a relatively low-leverage save situation).

They may use Gregg in the setup role, even though there’s not much reason to anticipate he’ll be more than a middle reliever in performance. Gregg has an average arsenal, sinker-slider-split, and other than occasionally running the fastball up to 94 doesn’t have a plus pitch. His control is below-average, with 72 unintentional walks over the last two years in 152 innings, and only a fluky-low home run rate in 2008 kept his ERA under 4. He’s not quite Antonio Alfonseca redux, but he’s no replacement for Kerry Wood, either.

The Marlins, meanwhile, have picked up another free arm for a player they simply didn’t want or need for 2009, and this arm is very good. Ceda sits in the mid-90s with a sharp slider with hard diving action, and he has a good track record of missing bats in the minors, including 42 strikeouts in 30 AA innings this year. His stuff would play in the majors right now, and the Marlins aren’t afraid to promote guys with big velocity quickly.

You don’t give arms like Ceda away for one year of a middle reliever’s time. Nothing is guaranteed with pitchers and especially not with pitching prospects, but I could see Gregg posting a 4.50 ERA and leaving as a free agent while Ceda becomes a star reliever in Florida for the next six years.

8. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:04 AM

I think what Law is missing is that Ceda didn’t have a spot here. Hendry got what he could for him, which, in this case, isn’t horrible. Maybe the Marlins did pants Hendry, maybe not. Only time will tell. Ceda could just as well be Jose Lima.

9. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:08 AM

If Swisher could be had for peanuts, why not the Cubs’ peanuts?

10. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:18 AM

If Swisher could be had for peanuts, why not the Cubs’ peanuts?

I’d assume the Cubs have their eyes on someone better and didn’t bother to go after him. I keep hearing Bobby Abreu and that the Cubs are willing to meet his demands of a 3 year, $45 million contract.

That’s probably too much money, but the years are good. He’s still a good ballplayer and will get on base a lot. I don’t think he’s the number 4 or 5 hitter the Cubs are looking for though. I really see him more as a number 2 hitter, maybe even a leadoff hitter at this point in his career. Maybe that’s what the Cubs are wanting him for. They want a leadoff hitter. Who knows?

11. kid_gloves (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:20 AM

He also never mentions the draft picks that we net from letting Wood go and trading for Gregg. And even if Gregg tanks next year his numbers from this last season are good enough that he should be at least a Type B free agent and net us another draft pick if/when he leaves. I believe the thought process is with 3 possible draft picks coming in from this Hendry thinks he could replace a plus arm like ceda.

12. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:20 AM

I’m not really sure why it’s so hard for people to realize that the Cubs didn’t simply replace Wood with Gregg. They replaced Wood with Gregg and $6-8 million, a couple of draft picks and only gave up a very risky Jose Ceda. Sure, Ceda could turn out to be the next Mariano Rivera and the deal would look horrible, but the odds are overwhelming that Ceda turns out to be a middle reliever at best.

13. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:22 AM

Good point about the draft pick or draft picks the Cubs could get for Gregg as well. Is he a free agent after this season or next season?

14. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:31 AM

Law may be on to something with Gregg’s HR rate. Here’s his HR rates, by season (per 9 IP):

2003: 1.12

2004: 0.62

2005: 1.12

2006: 1.15

2007: 0.75

2008: 0.40

His career rate is 0.82 HR/9 IP. One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just don’t belong…

15. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:33 AM

I don’t mind Abreu at the plate, MD, but I worry about his defense. Do you
happen to know offhand what he projects at as a RF?

16. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:36 AM

Gregg will give up his fair share of home runs. His BABIP was something like .264 in 2008 if I recall correctly.

17. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:38 AM

Abreu’s defense is awful. One has to hope that Soriano returns to his pre 2008 defensive level if you get a RF like Abreu. You also have to hope that Fukudome is as good in CF as he was in RF, which is highly unlikely.

18. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:39 AM

Go after Sheets, Lowe, or bring back Dempster and just be done with it. Move on.

Hendry seems intent on settling the rotation before the Winter Meetings so he may act fast in this regard.

19. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:44 AM

So, how much will the Yankees offer Sabathia today? Supposedly it’s going to be an offer that will blow away any other team. 6 years, $160 million?

20. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:45 AM

I’d say that’s close, MD.

21. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:57 AM

I just finished reading the thread about Woody over at BCB. Al is not a bright man. Not at all.

22. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 08:59 AM

Rosenthal’s top ten FA’s and their likely destinations. A few notables:

Derek Lowe, pitcher

Lowe hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 since 2004. There are some bigger names out there for those looking to improve their staffs, but Lowe has turned into a lock for around 200 innings of solid ratios. Rosenthal’s likely destination: Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Braves.

Rafael Furcal, shortstop

Furcal’s injury issues are cause for pause, and at 31 he’s not getting any younger. But the upside is nearly irrestible for those gambling on a full season of production. His 2006 performance, in which he hit .299 and stole 37 bases, will inspire somebody to take the plunge. Rosenthal’s likely destination: Dodgers, A’s, Braves.

Why the fuck would the Braves, who dumped Furcal for being too drinky, and already have Yunel Escobar, splash for Furcal? Sometimes these guys make no fucking sense.

Adam Dunn, left field

Dunn has become a lock to hit 40 home runs in a season ... but he also can strike out with the best of them. Teams looking to sacrifice average for power won’t be able to resist. And having somebody who’s always in the race for the league-lead in HRs might mean fans in the seats. Rosenthal’s likely destination: Nationals.

Ryan Dempster, pitcher

After several seasons of being used in relief, Dempster returned to a starting role and fluorished with a season so good he earned Cy Young consideration. Dempster’s 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks in 206.2 innings have him set up for a nice payday. The Cubs want to keep him, but they’ve got competition. Rosenthal’s likely destination: Cubs, Blue Jays, Braves.

CC Sabathia, pitcher

There is no better free-agent starter out there, and whomever gets CC likely vaults into serious World Series contention. Sabathia willed the Brewers to the postseason by going 11-2 with a 1.65 for Milwaukee. Now the big lefty will command top dollar, which will likely limit him to a handful of teams who can afford the price tag. Rosenthal’s likely destination: Yankees, Dodgers, Angels.

Mark Teixeira, first base

Teixeira will turn 29 shortly after Opening Day. He’s in his prime, plays great defense and has become a lock to drive in over 100 runs every season. But who can afford him? The Angels will make a run at keeping him in Anaheim, but they won’t be alone in the bidding. Rosenthal’s top suitors: Angels, Yankees, Red Sox.

Interestingly, Rosenthal does not have the Cubs as a player for ANY of the top ten, except for Dempster.

23. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 09:00 AM

I just finished reading the thread about Woody over at BCB. Al is not a bright man. Not at all.

What prompted you to do that to yourself? Are you doing some sort of baseball related penance?

24. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 09:02 AM

What prompted you to do that to yourself? Are you doing some sort of baseball related penance?

Cubtown linked to Al’s post so I got stuck reading it. I’ll learn one of these days to stop putting myself through that kind of torture.

25. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 09:03 AM

Interestingly, Rosenthal does not have the Cubs as a player for ANY of the top ten, except for Dempster.

That makes sense in my opinion. Both Hendry and Lou have said there will be more going on through trades than free agency. They really should be going after Furcal, but as we know, they aren’t going to get rid of Theriot no matte what Dolan says.

26. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 09:07 AM

Did i read somewhere that Zack Greinke may be available? If so, the Cubs should forget about Peavy and do what they can to get this guy. I know for a fact the Cubs have had interest in this guy. They did as recently as early july before landing Rich Harden.

27. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 09:12 AM

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/meet-baseballs-most-unheralded-ace/

28. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 09:59 AM

Wow. That’s a great article on Greinke. But it’s been my impression that the Royals know exactly what he’s worth and won’t take less. That said, he’s arb-elgible in 2009 and currently on a one-year deal, so maybe they could goaded into trading a guy they can’t afford to sign.

29. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 10:05 AM

I’m pretty sure it would take an offer the Cubs couldn’t beat to get Greinke. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in MIlwaukee this offseason.

30. MB21 (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 10:05 AM

new thread up

31. Harry Pavlidis (view all comments) — Nov 14, 2008 @ 02:38 PM