The more I think, the less I like the Peavy deal.

The more I think, the less I like the Peavy deal.

False. The opposite is true.

sheets won’t get a 4 year deal, and if he does it is of the lohse variety.  my bet is he signs for 1/$12 or 2/$25 with the second year as his option

as much as it is fun to slot peavy into that rotation, i continue to not see the benefit of putting all of your chips to use in an area where you are fine and have cheaper options to get better.  if you can improve other deficiencies more with those prospects, its crazy.  i.e. if the same prospects improve RF or CF for than you improve your staff, then WTF?

You would have to be a bonafide idiot to offer Ben Sheets 4 years $65M

Not only do we already know this guy gets hurt every single year, but for god’s sake—he ended the 2008 season on the DL. That really should diminish his leverage considerably in contract discussions. I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if Sheets was forced settle for only 2-3 years.

If you’re Hendry, and you’re already responsible for 2-3 scary lookin contracts (Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano), would you really consider gambling $65M on a pitcher who’s viable to see DL time every single year of that deal?

What I really want to know is why isn’t there any buzz about Derek Lowe? This is a guy with tons of big game experience, whose style fits Wrigley Field perfectly, and who—at least in my opinion—could easily end up being a better pitcher than Dempster over the course of the next 3, 4 years. Lowe would take less years, less money, and presents almost no risk whatsoever.

I’d really like to hear one good reason why the Cubs shouldn’t go after Lowe…

I’d really like to hear one good reason why the Cubs shouldn’t go after Lowe…

He’s me-first and a showboat.

Actually, I’m with you on that one. I’ve said before that I’d go after Lowe more than any other rumored pitcher.

He’s me-first and a showboat.

There won’t be any of those kinds of ballplayers on my re-built Cub team.

“That’s my opinion and if you don’t like it, well, I have others.” ~ Groucho Marx

Miles finished with an interesting tidbit, “the Cubs would love to trade Jason Marquis.”

Interesting?  If I told you “I love to breathe air” would that qualify as interesting as well?  Seems more along the lines of ‘obvious’ instead.

As for the trade, the devil’s in the details.  I’m not sure this club has a can’t-miss prospect, maybe Vitters, but even he supposedly has a few holes in his game.  You hate to dump too many usable, ML-ready parts—the bullpen guys, maybe Pie because he’s cheap and useful, Marshall as depth for the rotation.  But if you start talking about guys further down the line, or guys who are blocked (like Castillo), voiding the system doesn’t concern me quite so much.

There aren’t too many guys of Peavy’s caliber floating around out there, and if you want to build a team that will win in October, you need those top-shelf players.  One of my favorite Bill James comments ever came after the ‘87 season, when he said something to the effect of “Whitey still doesn’t get it: in the playoffs, you need a #5 hitter more than you need a #5 starter.”  (Say what you want about James, but I will always hold him in high esteem based on his hatred of the Herzog-era Cardinals alone.) 

I’d still be willing to roll the dice in order to bring in another legit front-line starter.  If you have to blow too many resources—especially the ones that are useful now—to get him, yeah, you pass.  But your odds of winning a short series or two are pretty good with even a modestly competent offense if you have Z, Harden, and Peavy starting six of the seven games.  You can’t discount that too much.

It does beg the question, though—is Sheets or Sabathia in our price range?  If so, do we then sign one and turn around and make the deal to shore up SS or the outfield?  I dunno. 

I’m also curious as to whether the Padres will hang on until the deadline to flip Peavy, and what that will do to his price (and his willingness to accept a trade).  He might suddenly become more open-minded come June when his team is 20 games back in a very average division.  And for all of the talk of SD cutting payroll, he really doesn’t start to get expensive until after this year is up.  It makes me think that the Cubs or Braves would probably get him for their best price if they make the deal right now.

All of these moves that you fellas mention are meaningless unless the Cubs add a Kevin Millar to platoon with Aubrey Huff at 1B.

And Luke Scott for the OF.

We also need to find a way to trade for Matt Cain so we can trade him for Nolasco.

I’m glad to see you are on board with my plans. Maybe I will reinstate you over at the Varsity Cubs Blog BCB.

“That’s my opinion and if you don’t like it, well, I have others.” ~ Groucho Marx

Diamonds from Tequila

I might root for another team if Zambrano is traded for Roberts. Wow. That might be a first.

Anyway, Maddog, apparently there is a moran running for Senate in Kansas.

Zambrano to the O’s???? Sounds like total bullshit.

You would have to be a bonafide idiot to offer Ben Sheets 4 years $65M

Not only do we already know this guy gets hurt every single year, but for god’s sake—he ended the 2008 season on the DL. That really should diminish his leverage considerably in contract discussions. I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if Sheets was forced settle for only 2-3 years.

The only way Sheets takes a 1 or 2 year deal (or 3 years for that matter) is if he wants to turn that into more money sooner than he could with a 4 or 5 year deal.  He’s the 2nd best free agent pitcher available and will get paid accordingly.  Some time will be willing to give him 5 years and at least $75 million.  He threw about 200 innings in 2008 and while you know he’s going to miss some time, you also know he’ll give you about 150 innings or more and those 150 innings are going to be among the best in the game. 

I mentioned 4 years and $65 million because that’s essentially what Dempster and Peavy would get over that span.  By signing Sheets we take on a pitcher who is only slightly more injury prone than Peavy (and Dempster for that matter), save the prospects and get 2 draft picks.

Saving those prospects (Marshall alone) and the 2 draft picks more than makes up for the risk of signing Sheets to that kind of deal.

Jack, there are plenty of good arguments to make for why the Cubs should sign Lowe.  3-year deal (reportedly).  He’s very good.  Groundball pitcher in Wrigley Field.  However, none of the reasons have anything to do with his postseason success.  As already mentioned, if we were to play that game we could build a terrible team with players who played integral parts in their team’s championships. 

When the likes of David Eckstein, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Darin Erstad,  Scott Brosius, and Dave Roberts can come up huge for their teams in the playoffs it says something.  It’s not saying that these players should be considered because of how they performed in October.  It says that in any given small sample size just about any thing can happen.  These guys are walking proof of that.

The Padres are idiots if they want sluggers. In that park, a slugger translates to a lot of long outs. Guys like Pie, speedy line drive hitters, are what they need, not bashers.

The Padres are idiots if they want sluggers. In that park, a slugger translates to a lot of long outs. Guys like Pie, speedy line drive hitters, are what they need, not bashers.

Yeah, when you look at what’s happened to Brian giles, it’s hard to comprehend why Towers would want the traditional sluggers.  Nothing wrong with having guys who can hit for power and have other offensive assets, but focusing only on players who can hit the ball out of the park in that place will only lead to failure.

I am really concerned about Peavy giving up 81 home runs in around 90 innings pitched on the road this season.  He only gave up 47 in Petco in over 100, so I am not real confident in what his success would be in Wrigley.  Having said that, I don’t want to see Ben Sheets and his consistently balky arm on the mound in a Cubs uni. How is he going to offer you anything more than Harden does?  You can’t afford two guys that aren’t going to take the ball every fifth day.  I am also afraid Dempster is going to return to his career norms so I’m hoping they let him walk.  All things considered, I still think trading for Peavy is the best option.

It’s probably just wishful thinking to hope for the Cubs to pick up Lowe and Furcal.

Melissa, Peavy only gave 13 HR in 75 IP on the road last season.

I’d be very surprised if Theriot was dealt.

That was career 81 on road and 47 at home.  I thought John Dewan said that was for the season when he was talking about it on the radio today.  Now that I think about it, it does seem excessive for one year.  Sorry about that.  I’ m still concerned that he will give up more home runs at Wrigley and all his road numbers are considerably higher than at home.

HP, I’m sure someone around will have heard that and translate it for us.  I’ll look around later on.

Melissa, he’s undoubtedly going to give up more home runs away from PETCO, but keep in mind that players perform worse on the road so that career 3.77 ERA is probably a bit above what we should expect.  I’d venture a guess around a 3.35 or 3.45 ERA, which is very good.

It makes sense that they would be similar to Harden as he also pitched in a “pitcher’s park” in Oakland.  I like Peavy, I just don’t expect him to be as good at Wrigley.  I would rather they trade for him than re-sign Dempster.

I think he said something about him being a Catholic, and it’s a sin.

And he pointed to the sky when he was done.

By the way, I just saw today that Mike Maddux is no longer the pitching coach in Atlanta.  He took a job for the Rangers.  Maddux was great for that staff in Milwaukee.  it’s going to be ugly for them.

Left handed bats are certainly nice and this team does need one, but a right handed bat would be just fine too in my opinion.

Well, if they wanted to get more lefty hitting in the lineup, they could slide DeRo over to short and play Fontenot at second vs. righties.  Doesn’t quite have the same panache as signing Milt Bradley, but it’s cheaper.

Another thing to consider is that while Sheets definitely has injury issues, he has made 55 starts the last 2 years.

You could put a BP net at SS and have it be as good or better than Theriot.

Okay, so he isn’t that bad, but he isn’t going to get better with age, and he was pretty damn bad already last season.

Guzman is being used as a starter isn’t he?  I don’t see him having any other role than as a reliever with the Cubs and he’ll probably do quite well with his stuff.  He’s a power righty and Lou loves those kind of guys.

“I’m 3-0 as a starter up there,” Grossman said. “I’m feeling pretty good about that stadium.”

idiot

Lou likes his lefties in the rotation so the Cubs could sign Andy Pettitte to take his place.  Thoughts?

I think it’s unlikely.  From what I am gathering Hendry wants to build a dominating starting staff.  Which means trying to keep Dempster and then trading Marquis and replacing him.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they go after any of the other starters sans Sabathia.  I also won’t be surprised if they trade for Greene and also try to bring in Hermida or Swisher. 
If they let Wood go I would imagine they’ll try to bringin Cruz or Brandon Lyon or even Kevin Gregg.

Really nothing beyond “Jake wants to be in Chicago” and “Atlanta isn’t going to happen”. I have more to say, but the more I think about it the more it could hurt the Cubs chances of getting him. I’m a Cubs fan first and foremost so I will not risk reducing the Cubs chances of getting one of the best pitchers in MLB just to improve my credibility with the board as a whole.—NSBB poster who thinks he has a source, but will no longer have a source in a couple days

What could he possibly say that would hurt the Cubs chances of getting Peavy?  Do the people there actually believe this guy?  Amazing.

What a penis wrinkle. I bet he throws five picks on Sunday.

What did Rex say that was so wrong?  A reporter asks him about playing in Lambeau and he tells the guy that he’s had pretty good luck there in his career so he feels good about it?  I would think you statfaygs would appreciate Rex throwing his record at that stadium out there.