If they dump Marquis then essentially you’d be replacing Marquis with Johnson and I’d take that everyday.

Why are people intent on bringing that shit up every time they talk about him?

The same reason Texas WR Jordan Shipley is called “Colt McCoy’s roommate” more than “Jordan Shipley” on TV.

Was Randy Johnson ever a star WR at Notre Dame?

No.  He wasn’t even a punter.  He sucks.

The all-wise, all-knowing Keith Law seems to think the Cubs got hosed in the Gregg deal.

Getting Jose Ceda for one year of Kevin Gregg is a heist for Florida, and could really end up as a disaster for the Cubs, given how they intend to realign their pen.

The Cubs say they’re going to move Carlos Marmol into the closer role, removing him from the seventh-eighth inning role where Lou Piniella was willing to stretch him out to get more than three outs in a single appearance. It also increases the chance that Marmol will be wasted in save situations where the Cubs have a three-run lead (that is, a relatively low-leverage save situation).

They may use Gregg in the setup role, even though there’s not much reason to anticipate he’ll be more than a middle reliever in performance. Gregg has an average arsenal, sinker-slider-split, and other than occasionally running the fastball up to 94 doesn’t have a plus pitch. His control is below-average, with 72 unintentional walks over the last two years in 152 innings, and only a fluky-low home run rate in 2008 kept his ERA under 4. He’s not quite Antonio Alfonseca redux, but he’s no replacement for Kerry Wood, either.

The Marlins, meanwhile, have picked up another free arm for a player they simply didn’t want or need for 2009, and this arm is very good. Ceda sits in the mid-90s with a sharp slider with hard diving action, and he has a good track record of missing bats in the minors, including 42 strikeouts in 30 AA innings this year. His stuff would play in the majors right now, and the Marlins aren’t afraid to promote guys with big velocity quickly.

You don’t give arms like Ceda away for one year of a middle reliever’s time. Nothing is guaranteed with pitchers and especially not with pitching prospects, but I could see Gregg posting a 4.50 ERA and leaving as a free agent while Ceda becomes a star reliever in Florida for the next six years

We talked about that piece in the last thread, ygo, and Law has a semblance of a point, until you recognize 3 things: one, Marmol, not Gregg is the closer; two, it’s not Gregg for Wood and Ceda, it’s Gregg, a lot of cash freed up, and two draft picks for Wood and Ceda, and, three, Ceda had no spot here, and Hendry may have just gotten max value for him.

Sorry, didn’t mean to repeat stuff.

That was the worst thing that has ever happened on this blog in the history of this season. Prove me wrong.

When I look at Ceda sometimes I see Jose Mesa. Sometimes I see F-Rod. He could be either.

This might be the most mind-bogglingly stupid piece of baseball chatter I’ve ever heard:

Would you trade Soriano for Dye?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 14, 2008 12:08 PM CST to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Straight up I would…

I don’t think the White Sox would though.

by SouthernCub on Nov 14, 2008 12:13 PM CST to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I think most of us would.

So, then, the next question is how much more we’d be willing to add in for Dye. I’m not sure Theriot would be enough.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 14, 2008 12:14 PM CST to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Holy. Screaming. Eagle. Shit.

Sign one of Abreu/Ibanez

No, thank you. I’d rather have Giles, Dunn, or even Luke Scott. Abreu and Ibanez are absolute butchers with the glove, and Abreu has probably gone past his ability to outhit his defensive gaffes.

Exactly, Shawn. Law makes a great point about Gregg’s aberrant HR rate of last season, and it’s very likely he could implode at Wrigley, but even if that happens, this is not a bad deal for the Cubs, due solely to the cash it frees up and the draft picks it guarantees.

I think Florida is just posturing on Hermida.  They’re a small club acting like a big one.  The Cubs could have him if they wanted, but I think you have to go full-court for Giles first.

Kerry comments on his departure from the Cubs.  Judging by the tone if his comments I’d say that the Cubs don’t have much to spend and have decided that spending it on the bullpen would not be in the best interests of the club.

Oh yeah, and I’d be fine with Big Johnson in the rotation.

Dude wanted to stay on a one year deal

Fear of change. He’ll warm up to his new team once he realizes he has a chance to win. I hope he does too.

I’d also be willing to bet that Kevin Gregg is going to be the most hated Cub next season.

4:26pm: Ken Rosenthal says the Cubs remain interested in Peavy; they intend to add one starting pitcher.  Ryan Dempster is another possibility, and Randy Johnson is also on the radar.
—mlbtraderumors

I’d sign Randy Johnson, take the draft picks for Dempster and then I’d sign Furcal and figure something out with RF.  Ibanez?  Not my first choice, but oh well.

The Braves are out on Peavy so it’s the Cubs or some other unnamed team.

Wood said today he would have come back on a one year deal and done anything it took to remain a Cub.  He wasn’t looking for a 3 or 4 year deal.  He was willing to give another home town discount and Hendry took a pass.  The Cubs obviously are cutting back on spending and they want to move Marmol into the closer role.  I think this team would have been better next season with Wood than they will be without him.

To me the only thing that Wood’s remarks prove is that the Cubs had no interest in signing him to a one year deal.  I personally believe Lou wants Marmol to be the closer and that Hendry would rather spend the money elsewhere.  Considering the fact that Wood would have taken a one year deal I think the Cubs would have been better off re-signing him.

Considering the fact that Wood would have taken a one year deal I think the Cubs would have been better off re-signing him.

Wood said he’d take a one-year deal, but with incentives in 2008 he made over $8 million so he wasn’t going to pay cut.  As for whether or not they’re better off re-signing him I think that depends on a lot of things.  If signing Wood prevented the Cubs from acquiring a power hitter, which would be the case if money is the issue, then I think the team has improved (assuming they sign that power hitter). 

Most importantly, a reliever’s production from one season to the next varies tremendously so I’m holding out hope the Cubs have realized this and that investing the kind of money Wood would need even for one year could be better spent elsewhere.  Furthermore, Kevin Gregg is almost as good as Wood so the bullpen is no weaker.

It won’t matter if the Cubs are better in the ninth inning if they are losing.  I don’t think Gregg or Shark or anyone else the Cubs trot out there are going to be as effective as Marmol was for 5 out of the 6 months of the 2008 baseball season in shutting down rallies.

Dunn gets a ton of criticism from the mainstream media, as he has become the new poster boy for those who are afraid of math

-Keith Law on Adam Dunn

Agreed, but it’s likely one of them will be nearly as effective as Wood.  One inning is one inning, regardless of when it occurs.

Nearly as effective as Wood is likely to be in 2009.

There is no reason they couldn’t have traded for Gregg and still given Wood the one year deal.  To me that would have made for a stronger bullpen.

It probably is stronger, but the reason is money.  They saved $6-8 million and even if Kerry Wood was as good in 2009 as he was in 2009 he’s not worth that. 

Most of all, I just don’t care too much about the bullpen.  I think the team needs a LOOGY, but other than you can mix and match and you never know what you’re going to get.  The 2009 bullpen could be the best in baseball.  It could also be the worst in baseball.  I absolutely hate spending money on players whose performance can vary from complete suck to total dominance.  And nearly every reliever falls into that group. 

A generous guess would be 1-2 wins fewer (a more realistic one would be about 0) without Wood.  They can add those 1-2 wins elsewhere.

not sure what the nums project, but i would take marshall as my 5 before i’d pay 15x his salary for johnson.  considering johnson probably doesn’t make more than 20-24 starts, you are paying 20x+ for him.  i’ll take marshall and roll with $8 extra million.

awfully tough to make the argument for gregg over wood to save money, then say you would rather have randy johnson over marshall, especially when the cubs are so solid 1-3 and probably 4 already in the rotation.

melissa, i don’t know if a team has actually gone from worst to first with the same guys and I’d say it hasn’t happened simply because 1) teams rarely have the same reliever from one season to the next and 2) teams that are terrible in one aspect generally try to improve that area of the game by adding players. 

I think the point I was trying to make is that if we were to agree that Wood’s true skill level was 4.25 ERA, which is probably where it is (thereabouts), he’s as likely to post a 3.00 ERA as he is a 5.50 ERA.  One of those is really good and one is pretty bad.  When we’re talking about 50 to 80 innings of work, almost anything could happen.  Starters success varies from one year to the next based on sample size and they’re throwing about 200 innings. 

It’s the same for your bench players as it is the bullpen.  Henry Blanco can bat .300 one year and then .220 the next.  Daryle Ward can be a great pinch hitter one year and perhaps the worst in baseball the next.

Also… …

haven’t the Yankees yet learned the lesson that you can’t buy a World Series title?

“That’s my opinion and if you don’t like it, well, I have others.” ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 14, 2008 7:16 PM CST reply   0 recs

No, Al, why don’t you remind them? While you’re at it kiss all 26 of the rings they have. I don’t get this line of thinking, they continue to score mass runs it’s just the damn pitching and people like Al come up with this kind of shit. Amazing.

haven’t the Yankees yet learned the lesson that you can’t buy a World Series title?

Yeah, they’ve learned that if you continue to spend money year in and year out and get to the playoffs that you’ll win a lot of World Series.  They’ve also learned they may go several years without one, but they’re going to stick to their plan because, you know, they have a better clue what they’re doing that any other organization and especially more than some idiot Cubs blogger.

My proposal:

SD gets: SS Ryan Theriot

Chi gets: SP Jake Peavy
SS Khalil Greene

S.D. would be getting a top tier SS, and dumping salary at the same time. I see no reason they wouldn’t do this.

That’s from NSBB.  I have no idea if that’s a joke.

No, Al, why don’t you remind them? While you’re at it kiss all 26 of the rings they have. I don’t get this line of thinking, they continue to score mass runs it’s just the damn pitching and people like Al come up with this kind of shit. Amazing.

(dying laughing). It’s great how much he thinks he knows about baseball. I’ve heard that line of reasoning from other people as well, some of whom even think that “buying” a World Series would cheapen the experience. When a team wins a quarter of the championships in a century, and even more league pennants, it’s obviously doing something right. This isn’t basketball, with a salary cap. Teams that can afford to spend more can do so. The problem is that people like Al not only want what every Cubs fan should want (a Cubs World Series title), but they want it to happen in exactly such a way as they’d think it even more special, and in doing so, they would handicap the team’s chances at a title.

I’m not even entirely sure I’d care if they murdered a small village to do so.

(dying laughing). Depends on the continent on which said village is located,

People like Al would feel it’s tainted even if they signed someone like Barry Bonds to help them do it.  Pathetic.

I’m fairly certain the only way a fan should feel tainted is if the Cubs won the World Series because the AL Champion team got killed in a plane crash. And even that’s about 50/50. (dying laughing).

(dying laughing). Depends on the continent on which said village is located,

I agree.  Antarctica is off liimits!

Yellon is such a fag. When it comes to teams that actually win…..alot…....he should just keep his fucking mouth shut.

“Ooh, the Yankees are trying to buy a championship.” They only won 23 titles before the 90’s, doing it the old fashioned way. Furthermore, what the fuck does he think the Cubs are doing?

What a fucking loser ass bitch, that guy is fucking clueless.

i’d feel really bad for the AL team, but beggars can’t be choosers.

(dying laughing). Yeah, I suppose a WS is a WS.

On the point of this thread, I say hell yes to Randy Johnson.

This shows how important unsaid things can be to an analysis. I don’t necessarily diagree with any of the points in that article, except the main premise. The problem there is Law doesn’t mention the upsides to the Cubs - the money they’ll save in not having to re-sign Wood and the draft picks they’ll acquire when some other team does sign him.

I think that Klaw’s point would be that the Cubs didn’t need to re-sign Wood OR make this trade. The fact that we’re giving up on 6 years of Ceda’s upside for one year of better-than-OK performance in Gregg is why he thinks the Marlins won this trade - it has nothing to do with Wood.