It would seem that there won’t be a Peavy deal.  After the Marquis trade, Bako signing, and Bradley signing are completed I think the Cubs will make one or two more deals this off season.  I may be completely brain farting on someone, but is Neal Cotts the only lefty in the pen right now?  If so the Cubs will pick up either a lefty reliever or a starter and move Marshall back to the pen.  I tend to think they’ll pick up a starter and move Marshall back to the pen keeping him available as a 6th starter when needed. 

The second move they could make, and should make, is trading Pie since it looks like there’s no spot on the roster for him and he’s out of options.  Lou likes keeping 12 pitchers which means only 13 position players.  After the Bradley and Bako signings those 13 players look like this:
C-Soto, Bako
1B-Lee
2B-Fontenot, Miles
3B-Ramirez
SS-Theriot, Cedeno
OF-Soriano, Bradley, Fukudome, Johnson, Gaithright

I could live with Sheets.  We’d just have to hope that he and Harden didn’t get hurt at the same time for an extended period.

Ha, if they both stayed healthy you might be looking at 110 wins.  More likely the starts would end up being split something like this:
Harden/Sheets combine for 40
Z/Demp/Lilly combine for 90
Marshall 15-20
Pitcher, AAA 12-17

and if the offense and bullpen do what we can reasonably expect that’s a team that should win somewhere in the mid to upper 90’s.

Actually, I’d say you could expect 45 starts from Harden/Sheets.  Sheets has been more durable than most people realize.  I think you could expect 25 starts from him and 20 from Harden.  Not that it changes your point any, but it’s just something I’ve mentioned before (Sheets being more durable than most people think).

Yeah, I doubt the Cubs have Lowe money, although he’d be my first FA choice.  After that, I guess it’s Sheets, who is awesome, but tends to get hurt.  I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see the Cubs trade for an arm.  It does appear that they are freeing up the chips to make a trade for someone, if not Peavy.  The Padres sale likely has a strong impact on whether or not Peavy gets moved.  Any thoughts on possible pitchers the Cubs could acquire?

It wouldn’t surprise me if Hendry traded for someone that’s completely off the radar right now.

I saw the other day that Jones wants to go back to Atlanta to finish his career.  Sounds like even he doesn’t think he has anything left.  I think Willie Mays has a better chance of getting back on track than Andruw.

This certainly appears to complicate anything that may have been going on with Peavy.

That said, Moorad and his group will no doubt be leveraging a lot of the sale price in a tight credit market which means that the terms will be less favorable than what has been typical. This probably means they will have cash flow pressures from day one- cutting payroll, or rather staying with the planned $40 million that’s been discussed may be just as important now as before. So, the Cubs leverage maybe just as it was. Moorad is currently on a supremely tight budget in AZ, because of the Colangelo years of over spending- so this wouldn’t be foreign to him. We just don’t know.

If trading DeRosa wasn’t necessary to bring in a free agent lefty RF and was, in fact, a precursor to a Peavy deal- I’d bet that the parameters where in place before Hendry pulled the trigger. The Padres certainly knew a few days ago what was happening in re. ownership and if the Peavy move was in the works- it was factored into all of this. In other words, I doubt they’d hang Hendry out to dry and say “Oops- sorry!” They simply would have held up the deal.

Either trading both Marquis and DeRosa was necessary to clear payroll for a free agent, or moving DeRosa was part of something to come that was already agreed to in principal. The move doesn’t make sense for any other reason if the “Win Now!” philosophy is what really is in place.

Imagine that.  A ballplayer that is smarter than the average fan.  Maybe Dempster is smarter than the average ballplayer, maybe not.  I figure the average player has an IQ of 29 and it appears the average fan’s IQ is somewhere are 2.7.

Andruw Jones—It says here that the Dodgers somehow got Jones to agree to a markedly reduced salary:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9023406/Report:-Dodgers,-Jones-agree-to-restructure-contract?MSNHPHMA

How is this possible?  I mean, can we just ask Soriano:  “Hey, do you mind taking less money or leaving the Cubs”?  I thought you can’t do this unless in the NFL.  If this is possible, why doesn’t everyone start doing this to underperformers????
—random BTI’er

Seriously. I hate Cub fans. With a fervent, unquenchable passion. Racist, ignorant dupes.

What makes me laugh, or frustrates the piss out of me depending on my mood, is that these fucks say over and over (Buster fucking Olney too!) that chemistry may be an issue with Milton Bradley despite the fact that nearly every single teammate he’s ever had has had tremendous things to say about him. 

Now, do I believe everything these players say?  Of course not, but if Milton Bradley was such a bad teammate there would be several examples of players who couldn’t stand the guy that have talked about him after he was no longer a teammate.  Jeff Kent?  That guy’s a racist prick and I imagine that many of the black and hispanic teammates he’s had have had serious issues with him.

Also, Jones didn’t not take less money.  He gets every cent he’s owed.  It was just a restructured deal.

Actually, as Dierkes points out over at MLBTR, the money is deferred over the next few years at interest, which means Jones actually will get more than the 15.4 mil he’s owed this season, when all is said and done. .

Good point about the interest.  That’s why the MLBPA accepted it.  In the end, whether it’s interest or not, he’s going to make more money since he’ll sign a contract yet this winter.

That’s why the MLBPA accepted it.

I think we all underestimate just how much influence the MLBPA has in these types of situations, and in situations like Peavy’s and Giles, where exceptions are made to NTC’s. It’s still the most powerful player’s org in sports, by far.

By realistic I’m thinking that Derek Lowe isn’t, but maybe that’s not correct.  Ben Sheets would be.  Peavy still is of course.  I don’t even know what other starters are still available.

By realistic I’m thinking that Derek Lowe isn’t, but maybe that’s not correct.  Ben Sheets would be.  Peavy still is of course.  I don’t even know what other starters are still available.

Lowe reportedly rejected a 3yr/40 mil offer from the Mets, so he’s probably out of range. Sheets and Pettite are still on the FA market, and there may be others available via trade.

That’s probably true.  I don’t think a sale can get done in this market that would allow the Padres to keep Peavy.

But I base that opinion off virtually nothing to substantiate it.  It was mentioned above that this definitely complicates the possible trade, but probably doesn’t change it too much.  I’ll take that for now since I have no clue.

Pettitte would be a good idea.  Lou likes 2 lefties in the rotation and he’ll be cheap compared to Lowe or even Peavy.

I don’t see this game having a salary cap for a long time, if it ever has one.  Has anyone done any research into how effective it’s been in the other leagues?  I assume the goal of the cap would be to create parity, but it seems to me that out of the 3 major professional sports leagues there is more parity in baseball and it’s not even close.  I remember looking back a few years ago to 1980 and there had only been 9 NBA teams that won a championship.  Nearly every team in baseball has played in the World Series over the last 25 years or so.  I think it would be awfully hard for someone to argue that a salary cap creates parity. 

I know I’m not someone who wants the kind of shit that happens in the NFL to happen in baseball.  Teams going from 5-11 to 11-5 or other such turnarounds are common in the NFL.  They remain rare in baseball (though easier to do than most think as we discussed yesterday) and they should be.  I like the fact that the Yankees can outspend every team in baseball.  I wish it were the Cubs, but teams should be able to use their profits how they see fit.  Teams profits should not be handed out to these own teams rivals.  That’s just absurd and I don’t like the luxury tax because of this.  The Yankees are giving money to some of the teams they are trying to beat.  That’s nonsense.

Think about it this way: in the midst of a rampant drug scandal, they still couldn’t gain any leverage on the union, not in ‘85, and not in ‘98-‘00.

That’s a good point.  I do wonder what impact this depression will have on the union though.  People haven’t exactly been too sensitive to the owner’s wishes in recent years, but if this economy sticks around a few years as it appears it will, I think people will become more sensitive to those who employ people.  Consider how many companies will be laying off people (and already have). 

Perhaps not.  I won’t pretend to understand economics and I have little idea how this whole mess will affect me, let alone an entire sports league.

Agreed. Although I like the idea of not having guaranteed contracts.

I like the idea, but I think a team should be bound to what they do.  If Soriano didn’t have a guaranteed contract he’d probably be let go after this upcoming season.  Or if A-Rod goes in he tank the Yankees will just release him and spend all that money elsewhere.  I like it that teams are bound to the decisions they make in previous years.  I like the idea as I said, but only because it could help the Cubs.  As a league though, I don’t want that.  I don’t want to sound all moral or anything, but I like the fact that guaranteed contracts forces teams to be more responsible.

True, but after the way some teams have spent this offseason

You’re probably right.  I saw something the other day that I’ve been meaning to post here:  Ryan Dempster’s contract is the 4th highest contract this offseason.  It’s behind only Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett—all signed by the Yankees.  Only one other contract has been signed for over $40 million (Dempster’s $52 million contract).

Point taken, but I also want the player to have that same sense of responsibility. Cough-Andruw Jones-cough.

That’s a good point too.  Hadn’t thought about that.  Hmmm…is there a way to balance that somehow?  Surely in this day and age there’s a way to quantify whether a player has played up to an acceptable level based on his contract.  I don’t think injuries should ever count against this.  They just happen and I don’t think a team should be able to back out of a contract because the guy got injured, but if Sabathia, for example, were to completely stink in 2009 and 2010 and come nowhere near what the Yankees thought they were getting, I’d be in favor of there being some system that would allow the Yankees out of that contract.

I don’t know it can be done.  Any system like this will be abused.  Loopholes will be found, but in theory something like that may work.

I like the idea of not having guaranteed contracts.

The only thing I don’t like about that is the morons that call players selfish when they hold out after a big season. If you’re working for a company that’s going to fire you the moment you underperform your contract, you had better hold out when you overperform it.

There’s waaaaaay more parity in the NFL. Maybe not within one season or one game, but from season to season there is. You mentioned this in your next paragraph.

I’m not so sure.  I’m not convinced that being able to have a turnaround season that lands a team in the playoffs is evidence of more parity.  How do these teams typically do the following season or the following 2 or 3 years?  Admittedly, I don’t watch the NFL anymore, but it seems to me that each year it’s pretty much the same teams trying to win the Super Bowl.  Maybe that’s just my uneducated opinion, which would be quite a lot like those who say similar things in baseball.

As for parity, i think the argument for it is a business one. I think part of the reason for the NFL’s success is that every team (and their fanbase) can enter the season with hopes of making the playoffs. Two of the worst teams last year were Miami and Atlanta, both of which are in the playoffs this season. True, that happened with Tampa last year in baseball… but the writing was on the wall there. They had tremendous prospects and were projected by many (including BP) to be a contender.

True, that happened with Tampa last year in baseball… but the writing was on the wall there. They had tremendous prospects and were projected by many (including BP) to be a contender.

False.  The media is still shocked the Rays were good, which means we couldn’t possibly have known.

A) Vitters

B) W. Castillo

C) K Hart

D) Stevens

If that’s the deal, Hendry should start campaigning for GM of the year.

But IMO the NFL is the one with more parity, at least from season to season. (You’ll get no argument from me that baseball easily has the most parity on a game-to-game basis. )

Fair enough.  You’ve convinced me.  I was never really sure and made the mistake of looking at just the champions, which is terribly flawed.

I don’t see this game having a salary cap for a long time, if it ever has one.  Has anyone done any research into how effective it’s been in the other leagues?

Here’s an old BP article.  A Current Biz of Baseball article basically says it’s hard to justify a cap for any reason. A Sports Business Journal article talks about this and says the NFL is discussing operating without a cap in the future.

This is your brain on drugs

Usually what they say on NSBB about Levine and other radio reports is what was actually said.  People get torn apart when they lie about that stuff so it doesn’t happen much from what I’ve noticed.

Let me ask this, is winning in the playoffs in the NFL as much of a “crapshoot” as it in baseball?

No, and I don’t think it ever will be. This year, it’s a huge crapshoot but I think that’s an anomaly brought on by a combination of injuries and a “changing of the guard” season. But going into the season, i’d say there’s more uncertainty about the NFL champs than the MLB ones. (Although i wonder what my opinion would be if Brady never got hurt and the Pats were dominating the league again.)

But even if the champs-type parity is greater in baseball, my main point is more along the lines of “worst-to-contending” parity.  Most MLB cellar-dwelling teams have no (rational) hope of even having a decent season the following year. The same thing isn’t true in football, and i think that having that hope everywhere is good for business. Will the Lions compete next season? Probably not… but the Rams have a chance to, as do the 49ers. And IMO the Lions have more of a chance of having a “competitive season” than the Nationals, Padres, Pirates, Mariners, and Orioles.

This was after numerous links to Lee quoted as not wanting to waive his NTC for a west coast team. The suggestion was Lee for Sanchez orrrrr… Lowry. Yeah either one, sure.

I’d be fine with getting Dunn for 1st too, but I’m betting if we looked into this that Lee comes out the better player.  I’d guarantee it actually.  Unless someone wants to argue that Lee is worse than DeRosa then there’s no doubt that Lee is better than Dunn.  I’m not a big fan of Lee, but if we’re going to deal him, I’d like to improve the position.

And that’s if Lee would waive his NTC, which he apparently won’t.

Not at all. You will see the occasional inexplicable upset in the first or second round, but usually that team gets blown out in their next game.

This is every season in the current format. 12 teams make the playoffs, 6 from each conference. Two teams get first round byes in each conference.  Here’s the number of teams that had byes that advanced to the championship game in each season, followed by the number that then advanced to the Super Bowl.

2007: 2 1
2006: 2 1
2005: 2 1
2004: 4 2
2003: 2 1
2002: 4 2
2001: 3 2
2000: 3 1
1999: 3 1
1998: 4 2
1997: 3 1
1996: 3 2
1995: 2 2
1994: 4 2
1993: 3 2
1992: 3 1
1991: 4 2
1990: 4 2

So, you could argue it’s become more of a crapshoot of late, but since the format started, we’ve never had a Super Bowl between two non-bye teams, and we’ve never had more than 2 of the top 4 seeds get knocked off in the same season.

i really disagree with Shawn about the NFL and parity. You wouldnt think that in league with a salary cap and great parity you could have a team go 0-16 or a team almost go 16-0. The Pats were able to dominate year in and out for a long time whereas baseball hasnt had a dynasty in almost a decade. We have different teams in the WS alot more than the Superbowl.

Also I HATE how NFL teams can sign a guy to a huge deal and then cut him a year later. I think having guaranteed contracts puts the spotlight on GM’s and the decisions they make alot better than in the NFL where a huge mistake can be rectified by a release a brief salary cap hit. All this talk from the Brewers owner about needing a salary cap is just sour grapes because his small market team just saw their window close.

I see Hendry’s thought process though – especially after Sosa. If Bradley makes enough guys miserable, it’ll give Jim the opportunity to dump some vets for basically nothing in order to avoid the 2010 salary bomb. People will be so desperate for peace on the team, there’ll be almost no demand to get anything in return for whoever else we trade. It’s a clever way to solve the problem, though it does force an early white-flag on 2009 in order to get it done.

So thoughts, anyone? Who would trade us for Bradley at the deadline or next offseason? How much will the Cubs have to eat of his salary?

“Bite my shiny metal ass!”—Bender Bending Rodriguez

“Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.”

by The Jade Scorpion on Jan 3, 2009 1:33 PM EST

Insightful or delusional- you decide.

That’s not really true, unless by brief you mean 2-3 years. Yes, the contract money isn’t guaranteed, but the signing bonus is. The signing bonus money is amortized over the length of the deal, so if it’s a 5 year deal with a 25 million dollar signing bonus, the player gets a check for $25MM when he signs, but the team only has 5 million count against the cap each of the 5 years of the deal. Catch is, if you cut a player before the contract is up, then the rest of what is owed against the cap all lands on that cap year. Cutting our “player X” above in year 2 would cost the team 20 million dollars against that years’ cap, which is simply impossible for any team to handle, you’re basically forced to hold onto the player for at least another two years if not three.

Yeah, I never realized that until I played in an “insanity” fantasy football league where the contract rules mimicked the NFL’s. It’s not easy to cut guys - it basically decimates your roster for that year in hopes of improving the team in future years. You can also see this if you play the dynasty mode in the Madden franchise games, which make you realize how much room a team has to leave under the cap for draft picks.

BM, what are your thoughts on the Bears needs this off-season? This is my priority list:

1. LE (pass-rushing specialist, ideally acquired on day 1 of the draft)
2, WR (hopefully T.J.F7 or Bouldin, if not a day 1 draft pick)
3. S (Taylor Mays or some other day 1 pick)
4. G (2nd day draft pick)
5. Backup RB (I really like the idea of Maurice Morris, if he’s available)
6. Backup QB (Ideally, Jeff Garcia)
7. More O-line depth (more day-2 draft picks)
8. LB depth (more day-2 draft picks)

I think cutting games off the regular season just makes it more of a crapshoot.  Is adding 2 games to the first round of the playoffs really that big of a deal?  Play the 1st round with only one day off, which would be similar format to how the regular season is played. 

I’m biased though.  I want more baseball, not less.

Interesting stuff about the salary cap, BM.  I never realized it was like that and it changes my opinion of it somewhat.  I still don’t want to see it in baseball.  Part of what I like about baseball is that a team can spend as much money as they want. 

Another question, does the NFL have a salary floor?  I just don’t see how you could add a cap in baseball without adding a a minimum salary as well and that gets difficult because some teams really don’t need to spend much if they’re rebuilding, but teams like the Marlins, despite their success, shouldn’t even be allowed in this game.  They make as much a mockery of the financial system in baseball as the Yankees and Sox do and rarely does anyone pay attention to that.

I think cutting games off the regular season just makes it more of a crapshoot.  Is adding 2 games to the first round of the playoffs really that big of a deal?  Play the 1st round with only one day off, which would be similar format to how the regular season is played. 

some people think adding 2 games to the first round is a bit less of a crapshoot. Maybe it just seems unfair when the 83 win teams beat out the 97 win teams so quickly.

Another question, does the NFL have a salary floor?

Yeah, it’s either 80 or 85% of the cap. 

This is a really good writeup on the cap:

http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/faq.asp

I’m not sure it’s completely accurate, but it’s the most comprehensive breakdown I’ve read.

I see people are continuing to sleep on San Antonio.  Excellent!!!

They should have been included in that list. But i’m not convinced anyone else should be. At this point, i’d give those 4 teams a combined 90% chance of winning the title, which is absurd.

I wonder if that is how the ‘03 Braves felt HG? Yeah it wasn’t a sweep but the difference is games won was about the same.

Anyone have a take on the plan B, FA, LHRP, Dennys Reyes of the Twins?

I would love a pass rushing end, but I can’t put it above any of those other five positions, and I probably couldn’t put it above quarterback either.

This seems to be the main place our priorities disagree, with the rest being the order of importance of the other things. The need for a LE mostly comes from my feeling that Ogunleye and Anderson are both done. Brown is a keeper, but unless the Bears switch to a 3-4 (not going to happen, and that would just mean drafting more LB’s anyways) they’ve got a huge hole at one of the DE spots.

The Bears were a top-4 rushing defense in every direction but right tackle (in other words between defense’s LE and LT), where they were 17th.

More importantly, I feel that the biggest problem with the pass D was the pass rush - the Bears rated above average in coverage against WRs’s, and TE’s, but below average against RBs. Given that RBs don’t get than many receptions, the below-average pass D has to be due to a dismal pass rush. And the pass rush was dismal, ranked 27th in the league and only above BUF, WAS, CLE, CIN, and KC. That’s not good company. This all tells me the fault there lies more with the D-line than the secondary. The only times the Bears got pressure on the QB was when they blitzed, and that opened themselves up to get picked apart by a good QB. You fix LE, and you fix the biggest problem with the defense and it should be top-5 again.

I agree with you on prioritizing S - even if they bring Brown back they need to draft his replacement in case of injury and to start grooming for the future. Plus, they need to move D. Manning back to nickelback. He looked comfortable there but completely lost at S.

What’s with all the John Q. Public login names?

I just read on Chicago Cubs Online and it verified the rumor posted on NSBB about Levine being 80% sure the deal for Peavy would get done and the players he’s been told are what I quoted above (Vitters, Castillo, Stevens and Hart).  The Cubs are talking to Rich Aurilia’s agent and want him to back up the corner infield spots.  Levine says the deal for Bradley is for $8-9 million per year.  Pie and Ronny Cedeno will be traded in the coming weeks.  Once that is done, Miles becomes the back-up to Theriot.  Interestingly, Lou is planning to go with a lot of defensive replacements in the outfield according to Levine.  Fukudome will shift to RF on days he’s starting in CF (and come into the game on days he isn’t started), Gathright will take over in CF and I’m betting Reed Johnson will take over in LF in the 8th or 9th inning.  It sounds like Lou may make the RF and CF changes fairly early (7th inning, maybe?).

all this talk reminds me again how much I hate the wild card in MLB.

Yeah, you and I are on the same page when it comes to this.  I’d rather not have the bye like Costas suggests, but either create a 4th division in each league or merge the divisions and take the teams with the 4 best records in each league.  I’d prefer a 4-division format in each league since at least that way each team has to win their division.  In the NL?

East:  Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Pirates
West:  Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks
North:  Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds
South:  Braves, Marlins, Astros, Rockies (they have to go somewhere)

Travel would be reduced quite a bit this way assuming they continue to have an unbalances schedule and the only team “out of place” is the Rockies.  Since they’d have more travel than other teams, you could give them longer homestands and roadtrips (if that would be agreeable).

The so-called parity of the NFL is an illusion created by its incredibly short schedule.  I now have an idea for an article, though.

That was my next question to ask the people here who follow football:  is the NFL season a smaller sample than the MLB season?  In other words, what kind of sample in the NFL would it take to equal the kinds of small samples we often talk about in baseball (virtually all split stats, some of which are half or more of a full season).  16 games seems like nothing, but maybe the NFL games are set up differently.  I don’t know.  Anyone?

http://www.playerappreciate.com/pimphandle.asp

Shawn’s pimp name is:  Sugartastic S. Flava

You can keep hitting enter and it will give you a new name each time.

but.. add 2 more teams? I’d rather contract teams.

Me too.  I’m in favor of eliminating 14 teams.  In all honesty, I’m in favor of going back to the system as it was initially set up.  16 teams, 2 leagues, no divisions, 2 teams in the playoffs, one champion.  I’d take it.

HG’s pimp name:  Vicious D. Horny Skillz (dying laughing)

(dying laughing)…
Silicon Slick S. Joker

New article up.

http://www.anothercubsblog.net/index.php/site/comments/the-parity-myth-part-one/

Fucking incredible that the Padres sale could be complete before the Cubs sale. Just to refresh the Cubs announced the team would be for sale in April 2007; the Padres last month. Nice work Sam Zell!