2010 Cubs: Randy Wells
Written by mb21   
Friday, 12 March 2010 00:00

One of the thing baseball fans love most is when a player comes "out of nowhere" and surpasses all expectations.  Randy Wells had an excellent rookie season in 2009 few knew anything about him.  They say he came from out of nowhere

CHONE projected a 3.9 ERA and a 3.7 FIP out of Randy Wells in 2009.  He was projected as a reliever so add about .9 to that and make it 4.6 as a starter.  Wells FIP last year was 3.88, which was nearly a run higher than his ERA.  Wells has good control, but doesn't strike too many hitters out.

If the fans are expecting a repeat of 2009, they'll be disappointed, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't expect him to be good.  Below are his 2010 projections.

Projection ERA IP H HR BB SO FIP
Bill James 4.16 188 194 20 60 147 4.10
CHONE 4.53 153 166 18 49 108 4.27
Marcel 3.66 140 136 13 45 95 4.12
Fans 4.10 169 192 18 53 115 4.15
CAIRO 4.15 88 90 9 28 59 4.26
PECOTA 4.09 190 193 20 62 131 4.18
CBS 3.98 192 193 18 61 114 4.20
ZiPS 4.26 163 170 20 51 106 4.45
Oliver 4.05 180 184 20 59 125 4.26
Average 4.11 163 169 17 52 111 4.22

A 4.22 FIP is above average and there's still some upside.  Perhaps what he showed last year is legitimate?  Obviously he's not going to be as good as he was (FIP nearly a run higher than ERA and that probably doesn't happen again), but it's possible his FIP is as low as 3.9 or so.  I wouldn't bet on it.  We projected 170 inings from Wells.

Name IP_Start ERA WAR $WAR Actual Diff.
Randy Wells 170 4.22 2.45 $11.41 $0.40 $11.01

The maximum number of innings someone projected was 200.  That would make him worth 2.9 WAR.

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Last Updated on Friday, 12 March 2010 12:14
 
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