If you're interested, you can read more about BaseRuns here and here.  I used the basic BaseRuns formula and the 2010 Cubs projections with our playing time estimates (I changed our PT estimates a little bit here and there).  I noticed I had a few mistakes on that page.  The Oliver, Marcel and Fans forecasts BB and K were in the opposite columns.  I haven't updated that page yet, but will when I get home next week.

That formula for the offense is:

A = H + W - HR
B = (1.4*TB - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*W)*1.02
C = AB - H
D = HR

There is a much more detailed formula that includes most every event in baseball, but the projections are rather limited, so I stuck with the basic one.

For pitchers, it is:

A = H + W - HR
B = (1.4*TBe - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*W)*1.1
C = 3*IP
D = HR
Where TBe = 1.12*H + 4*HR

On the 2010 Cubs projections page, I used the average projected innings pitched and since I adjusted those innings for this, I also adjusted all of the other stats.  For example, if a pitcher was projected to throw 60 innings and allow 50 hits and we projected him to throw 35, I adjusted his hits allowed (and all other stats) to match the innings pitched.  So for that example, you find the hits per inning and then multiply it by the number of innings we projected.  The same thing was done for the batters.

For defense, I'm subtracting 16 runs from the runs allowed projection because of the Cubs defense.  The regulars project to be 16 UZR/150.  Nady, Millar and maybe a couple others will bring that down, but Soto and Hill are above average defensive catchers so 16 seems fair.

I'v also included 4 win percentage estimators (Pythagorean, PythagenPat, and the formulas from years ago by Earnshaw Cook and Bill Kross).

The end result is 791 runs scored and 734 runs allowed (***see update below***).  That's 750 pluse the 16 runs saved by the defense.  Plugging those numbers into the win percentage estimators gives the following table:

PythagenPat is the most accurate followed by Pythagorean.  I'm not sure about the accuracy of the older ones, but included them for fun.  The Cubs are definitely contenders in 2010, despite the thousands of times I've said they aren not this offseason.  They're not as good as we'd like, but that would be true unless they were a 95 win team and even then I'd want them to be better.  The Cardinals are still the best team in the division, but if the Cubs get just a little lucky, they can win it.

That concludes our 43-part look at the 2010 Chicago Cubs.  It's my last one anyway.  I don't know about the rest of you.

[UPDATE @ 2:25 PM] The runs scored projection doesn't include pitcher's batting.  Last year the Cubs pitchers had 372 plate appearances so it matters.  I've added in the 2009 Cubs pitcher's batting line for a 2010 projection.  That increases the Cubs runs scored to 799.  That doesn't change the projected win total much, but it is an extra win.  Below is the updated table.

There you have it.  88-74.  I didn't initially include the player list used, but I've added it with this update:

Batting

Pitchers