2010 Cubs projections 2.0
Written by berselius   
Saturday, 27 February 2010 11:59

I've updated my master Cubs spreadsheet predictions. Here are the numbers before I explain the update

Per 700 PAs
Hitter Pos PA wOBA Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR
Geovany Soto CA 493 .357 1.37 −0.18 1.25 2.00 4.44 $14.5 3.1
Koyie Hill CA 168 .294 −2.51 0.13 1.25 2.00 0.87 $1.3 0.2
Derrek Lee 1B 587 .378 2.62 0.08 −1.25 0.20 2.00 3.65 $14.2 3.1
Kevin Millar 1B 55 .319 −1.00 −0.18 −1.25 −0.55 2.00 −0.98 $0.1 −0.1
Micah Hoffpauir 1B 83 .341 0.39 0.00 −1.25 0.00 2.00 1.14 $1.0 0.1
Jeff Baker (L) 2B 203 .346 0.67 0.00 0.25 0.03 2.00 2.95 $4.2 0.9
Mike Fontenot (R) 2B 296 .334 −0.06 −0.13 0.25 0.36 2.00 2.42 $5.0 1.0
Jeff Baker (R) 2B 85 .322 −0.79 0.00 0.25 0.03 2.00 1.49 $1.2 0.2
Mike Fontenot (L) 2B 38 .301 −2.07 −0.13 0.25 0.36 2.00 0.41 $0.5 0.0
Ryan Theriot SS 567 .324 −0.67 −0.15 0.75 0.31 2.00 2.24 $8.6 1.8
Mike Fontenot SS 84 .329 −0.36 −0.06 0.75 −0.14 2.00 2.19 $1.6 0.3
Aramis Ramirez 3B 551 .380 2.77 −0.27 0.25 −0.07 2.00 4.68 $17.0 3.7
Jeff Baker 3B 73 .330 −0.30 0.00 0.25 0.03 2.00 1.98 $1.3 0.2
Kevin Millar 3B 68 .319 −1.00 −0.18 0.25 −1.55 2.00 −0.48 $0.2 0.0
Alfonso Soriano LF 504 .345 0.59 −0.16 −0.75 0.15 2.00 1.83 $6.3 1.3
Xavier Nady LF 100 .346 0.70 0.01 −0.75 −0.44 2.00 1.52 $1.4 0.2
Sam Fuld LF 38 .327 −0.47 0.13 −0.75 0.40 2.00 1.31 $0.7 0.1
Marlon Byrd CF 537 .344 0.57 −0.28 0.25 −0.04 2.00 2.50 $9.0 1.9
Kosuke Fukudome CF 66 .344 0.53 −0.33 0.25 −0.87 2.00 1.58 $1.1 0.1
Sam Fuld CF 61 .327 −0.47 0.13 0.25 −0.54 2.00 1.37 $0.9 0.1
Kosuke Fukudome (R) RF 377 .350 0.91 −0.33 −0.75 0.63 2.00 2.46 $6.4 1.3
Kosuke Fukudome(L) RF 46 .318 −1.03 −0.33 −0.75 0.63 2.00 0.52 $0.6 0.0
Xavier Nady(L) RF 194 .364 1.77 −0.02 −0.75 −0.44 2.00 2.56 $3.6 0.7
Xavier Nady(R) RF 66 .339 0.24 −0.02 −0.75 −0.44 2.00 1.03 $0.8 0.1
Team 5340 .348 0.76 −0.13 −0.02 0.06 2.68 $92.3 20.4

 

Pitcher S/R IP FIP LEV FA $ WAR
Dempster S 198 3.87 1.0 $16.0 3.5
Zambrano S 201 3.99 1.0 $14.9 3.2
Lilly S 160 4.08 1.0 $11.1 2.4
Gorz S 133 4.31 1.0 $7.6 1.6
Wells S 170 4.22 1.0 $10.5 2.2
Silva S 42 4.72 1.0 $1.8 0.3
F7 S 37 5.10 1.0 $1.0 0.1
Marshall S 42 5.20 1.0 $0.9 0.1
Marmol R 72 3.78 1.8 $5.5 1.1
Grabow R 66 4.34 1.3 $1.1 0.1
Gray R 60 4.25 1.0 $1.2 0.2
Guzman R 35 4.05 0.9 $1.2 0.2
Marshall R 53 4.16 0.8 $1.1 0.2
Caridad R 53 4.10 0.7 $1.2 0.2
F7 R 39 4.08 0.6 $0.9 0.1
Gaub R 20 4.60 0.5 $0.3 0.0
Maine R 14 4.50 0.5 $0.4 0.0
Silva R 31 3.77 0.5 $1.0 0.1
Stevens R 35 4.35 0.5 $0.5 0.0
Starters 983 4.19 $61.0 13.5
Relievers 478 4.14 1.0 $10.4 2.2
Total 1461 4.17 $71.0 15.7

 

Group WAA WAR
Hit 5.8
BR −1.0
Field 0.5
Hitters 20.4
Pitchers 15.7
Total WAR 36.1
Total FA $ $163.3
Win Talent 84

Click read more to see the rest

The changes from last time added...no WAR. The major ones are:

  • The new community playing time projections, more or less
  • Platoons at 2b and RF
  • The current roster outlook - basically right now it's looking like Millar, Fuld, Caridad, and Gray are making the team and Fontenot will be the emergency backup at SS, with Theriot playing every day. This would mean no Chad Tracy or Andres Blanco. Hoffpauir still has an option left so I'm including him here. Millar's roster spot is basically to be the Deputy Director of Dick Jokes (to paraphrase a title from FonteYES). I also lined up the bullpen the way I think we will see it shake out, though Silva could definitely move up if he pitches as well as his relief projection looks like.
  • The projections systems are used now Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans, PECOTA, ZiPS, CAIRO. The previous projections only used the first four.

I actually just added CAIRO to this and it changed a lot. CAIRO is pretty negative on several of the Cubs players from what I can tell - before adding it I had team projected at 85.6 wins. It doesn't seem right to me that adding in one more projection system should drop the whole thing down by a win, so I wonder what I screwed up here.

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Last Updated on Monday, 29 March 2010 17:24
 

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